Half a week later, the silicone market is still deadlocked in the supply-demand game. At present, individual factories are still releasing parking messages, but the feedback on orders in the terminal market is average. Mid to downstream enterprises have poor shipments, and the operating rate has also decreased synchronously. The stocking operation tends to be rational and conservative. Due to the ongoing stalemate in transaction volume, some individual factories have shown pressure to accumulate inventory, and their shipping mentality has turned positive. There are signs of loosening in some areas, and the actual transaction price of DMC has dropped to 14100-14500 yuan/ton. However, at a critical stage of the game between supply and demand, the upstream has loosened first, undoubtedly exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the middle and downstream, and stocking up has become more cautious. Some companies have stated that they will wait to see if other individual factories follow suit and adjust, or make a decision after price fluctuations stabilize.
In the short term, partial loosening before the holiday may create a certain disturbance to the market price atmosphere, and the replenishment of essential needs by middle and downstream enterprises may be delayed until after the holiday, depending on the price trend before entering the market. In the future, special attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of individual factories and the changes in the pace of midstream and downstream replenishment.
107 glue and silicone oil market: This week, 107 glue and silicone oil companies maintained stable quotations and offered discounts on transactions. The mainstream offer for 107 glue is 14800 yuan/ton, and the price for silicone oil is 16200-17000 yuan/ton. Due to poor new order transactions and signs of loosening in some DMCs, the trading of 107 adhesive has also been directly affected. Downstream price suppression sentiment is strong, and some individual factories are offering discounts on 107 adhesive deposits.
In terms of silicone oil, the recent tight supply situation in the tertiary market has eased, and the price of silicone ether has fallen to 35000-36000 yuan/ton, with significant weakening of cost support. In addition, low-priced silicone oil is being suppressed by individual factories, and the main silicone oil companies in the market are under pressure to sell at high prices, which puts them in an awkward situation. On the one hand, they are still digesting the high priced raw materials in the early stage, and there is currently no room for price adjustment; On the other hand, pre-sale orders are gradually being delivered, while new orders are not being sold smoothly; The operating rate of local silicone oil enterprises has declined.
On the demand side: Currently in the traditional off-season, terminal demand is still weak, and silicone adhesive companies are maintaining light warehouse operations and insisting on purchasing on a per order basis to avoid losses. Therefore, in actual transactions, low-priced essential needs are still the main focus. Overall, the willingness to maintain stability on the supply side is parallel to the risk aversion on the demand side, and it is expected that the 107 rubber and silicone oil markets will continue to maintain a weak balance in the short term.
Cracking material silicone oil market: On the raw material side, the premium caused by geopolitical conflicts in the early stage quickly subsided, and the price of sulfur decreased slightly. However, the sulfuric acid market continued to rise due to the concentrated maintenance of some units. On the 17th, the benchmark quotation of Shengyi Society further climbed to 2215 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of over 11%. The overall cost has not significantly decreased, and cracking material enterprises continue to face pressure. In terms of orders, the overall demand in the terminal market is weak, and downstream enterprises lack confidence in stocking up. Actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential purchases, with fewer bulk orders.
Overall, the silicone oil market for cracking materials is in a game stage of high costs and sustained weak demand. Currently, the price of silicone oil for cracking materials remains at 13500-14500 yuan/ton, and there is still room for discounts in actual transactions. Enterprises maintain low profit operations, and actual transactions continue to be a single negotiation. In terms of waste silicone, the current market maintains a pattern of oversupply, and the price of raw materials has been at the bottom for a long time, making it difficult for recyclers to make profits. Therefore, the material collection is relatively negative. Due to limited new orders, the procurement of raw materials by cracking material enterprises has been generally sluggish recently, and they tend to further reduce prices. Currently, the delivery price of raw materials has fallen to 3600-3800 yuan/ton (excluding tax). Overall, current waste silicone recyclers are facing dual pressures of poor shipments and inventory backlog, with limited operational space and a focus on profit sharing for shipments.
Silicone rubber market: Affected by the off-season in traditional fields such as downstream construction, the overall market demand is weak. Silicone rubber enterprises maintain a cautious attitude in procurement, avoiding high price hoarding, and generally adopt a small batch, high-frequency rigid procurement rhythm for 107 rubber and silicone oil. At the same time, in response to the requirements for improving the quality of existing products in the "15th Five Year Plan for Urban Renewal", enterprises prioritize selecting source manufacturers with complete self owned industrial chains and qualifications, and actively pay attention to the compliance requirements of the new standards for green building materials. The expected increase in macro stable growth policies and the promotion of local infrastructure projects have provided a short-term boost to market sentiment. However, the actual orders at the terminal have not significantly improved, and silicone adhesive companies still rely mainly on scattered and essential needs for orders, without forming large-scale transactions. In addition, the pressure of fund collection continues to restrict the increase in volume. In the short term, under the risk aversion sentiment, silicone adhesive companies generally maintain low inventory operations and purchase cautiously.
In summary, the current market is in a game window period of "upstream exploratory loosening" and "downstream wait-and-see waiting", with both sides waiting for each other to show their cards first. From a medium-term perspective, this round of price correction is not a substantial deterioration of supply and demand fundamentals. If the maintenance of individual factories continues as scheduled after the holiday and prices gradually approach the cash cost line of some enterprises, the bottom support will naturally strengthen. At that time, the demand for replenishment after the consumption of inventory in the middle and lower reaches will be released, and the market may be expected to complete this round of adjustment by the end of June to early July, returning to a stable state.