The mid month organic silicon market continues to experience weak fluctuations. Currently, there are still pre-sale orders supporting individual factories, and the overall operation of the equipment is stable. However, there has been differentiation in the start of production: some individual factories have insufficient follow-up on new orders, and in order to avoid the pressure of accumulated inventory in the future, they have begun to gradually reduce negative production; However, due to the high volume of orders placed in the early stages, leading factories have little short-term shipping pressure, which provides certain support for the market price center.
On the demand side, due to the slow digestion speed of the terminal, the inventory turnover of middle and downstream enterprises is average, and the raw material procurement cycle is significantly prolonged, resulting in a reduction in actual procurement volume. Some small and medium-sized enterprises face significant pressure to recoup their funds and have a weak willingness to stock up, with a focus on purchasing only a small amount of essential goods.
Overall, the current supply and demand sides are mutually balanced, and prices lack upward drivers. If the centralized maintenance of individual factories is implemented in the future, and the raw material inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is consumed below the safety line, the increase in inquiries is expected to drive the temporary repair market. On the contrary, if the upstream production reduction is insufficient and inventory continues to accumulate, the price center of gravity may further shift downwards, and the middle and downstream will continue to wait and see, waiting for lower prices to enter. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the dynamics of individual plant installations and the actual stocking levels downstream.
Industrial Silicon: Supply Side: Recently, some silicon plants have announced plans to resume production, while the wet season is approaching. The reduction in electricity prices has led to a decrease in production costs, and there is an expectation of an increase in output. Supply side expectations are becoming more relaxed. Demand side: The production of polycrystalline silicon has slightly increased, but its driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon is relatively limited; Organic silicon monomer factories are promoting production reduction operations, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and sustained weakness in overall demand.
However, the recent notice issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the Implementation Opinions on Innovative Development of "Artificial Intelligence+Information and Communication" (2026-2028) has boosted market sentiment. In the long run, by 2028, artificial intelligence and information communication will initially establish an innovative development pattern of integration and mutual promotion, which will greatly stimulate the demand for AI computing power in the future, further drive the demand for silicon wafers, and bring benefits to the demand side of industrial silicon.
Overall, the positive news still needs to be verified, and the expectation of resuming production in the southwest region is gradually being realized, which will constrain the upward space of industrial silicon prices. As of June 11th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2609 was 8760 yuan/ton; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon is 9300-9500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the industrial silicon market will maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The market for precipitated white carbon black: On the raw material side, the tight supply situation in the market is difficult to improve temporarily. On June 11th, there was an international emergency news: the Strait of Hormuz was officially closed, illegal ships will be hit, and the Middle East sulfur shipping channel will be blocked. Stimulated by this heavyweight news, the domestic sulfur market has experienced a sharp rise: the futures end has risen by 1400-1900 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 11050-11950 yuan/ton; The price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports ranges from 1000-1750 yuan/ton, with spot prices of 11000-12000 yuan/ton. The short-term market trend may continue to rise; Under the support of high costs, the price of sulfuric acid remains firm. For companies producing precipitated white carbon black, maintaining high costs provides further strong support for current prices. At present, the price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber remains stable at 6800-8000 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, due to the limited shipment of downstream rubber mixing enterprises, their operating load is not high, and overall procurement is mainly based on essential needs, resulting in a flat market trading atmosphere.
Overall, it is acceptable for companies producing precipitated white carbon black to receive orders, but the market lacks significant positive support, and it is expected that the short-term market will continue to operate weakly and steadily.
Gas phase white carbon black market: Currently, the price of raw material A remains high, and the cost side provides stable support for gas phase white carbon black. In terms of demand, summer orders continue to increase, and downstream areas such as silicone rubber have strong purchasing enthusiasm; At the same time, driven by the new national standard, the demand for liquid adhesive products such as "sulfur free" continues to grow, and some enterprises have accelerated their procurement pace for gas silicon. Overall, the cost support is clear, and there is a certain positive pull from the demand side. Currently, the high-end quotation for 200 specific surface area is firm at 25000-32000 yuan/ton, while the low-end quotation is 20000-22000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price of gas-phase white carbon black will remain stable and improve in the short term.
Overall, although the current organic silicon market has light trading volume, bottom support is accumulating. With the deepening of load reduction in individual factories and the gradual clarification of subsequent maintenance plans, the supply side will continue to tighten; As downstream inventory gradually depletes, there is an expected increase in demand for replenishment. In the short term, if subsequent production cuts are implemented and inquiries rebound, market sentiment is expected to improve, and there is a possibility of a tentative rebound in organic silicon prices.