According to British media reports, due to factors such as the obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the cost of marine fuel has skyrocketed by nearly 70%. Shipping companies have shifted the cost pressure onto shippers, and global container shipping prices continue to soar. The prices of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil at the world's top 20 refueling hubs have increased by 68% compared to mid February, while high sulfur fuel oil prices have risen by 66%. Some companies predict that the peak season is coming, and freight rates will face further upward pressure in the coming weeks.
Raw rubber and mixed rubber market daily report (Tuesday, June 2): Price stability game continues, value competition gradually becomes the main line
On Monday, the organic silicon sector saw a slight increase, with Xin'an Stock's stock price of 600596 leading the way with a 10% surge, reaching the daily limit up. On Tuesday, June 1st, the domestic silicone market showed a pattern of "temporarily stable prices and intensified competition". Top enterprises have seen an orderly decline in production, while mainstream individual factory prices have remained stable supported by orders in hand. Although some enterprises have equipment maintenance, they are under double pressure from high costs and insufficient willingness to receive goods at high prices downstream. Some individual enterprises are under pressure in terms of production profits, and the upstream and downstream have officially entered the stage of negotiation and game.
As of that day, the DMC price remained stable at 14800-15100 yuan/ton, the 107 glue water purification quotation was reported at 14800-15100 yuan/ton, and the methyl silicone oil quotation was reported at 16200-16800 yuan/ton. In this context, the market trends of raw rubber and mixed rubber are diverging and tending to fluctuate.
Raw rubber: price difference ends, inquiry orders rebound, expected to stabilize and fluctuate
The market price of raw rubber is temporarily stable, mainly due to the gradual end of price differences between enterprises and the convergence of quotes from various manufacturers. The current mainstream quotation for raw rubber is 15500-15800 yuan/ton, and there is a profit margin of around 200-300 yuan/ton for large contract orders. It is worth noting that the downstream purchasing side's willingness to inquire has increased, driving the market trading atmosphere to gradually become more active compared to the previous period.
Industry analysis suggests that multiple intertwined factors will affect the subsequent trend: on the one hand, the expected 40% reduction in emissions from individual units will lead to supply contraction, which will support prices; On the other hand, the prices of DMC raw materials have weakened, and downstream procurement attitudes remain cautious. Although companies are trying to raise prices in the new moon, their profit margins are clearly limited. Overall, it is expected that the raw rubber market will maintain a stable and volatile pattern, and it is difficult to see a unilateral market trend in the short term.
Rubber mixing: Observing small and medium-sized procurement, orders in segmented fields increased by 15% year-on-year
In terms of mixed rubber, the market price has remained stable at 14700-14900 yuan/ton, and the wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. However, procurement actions have begun to take small steps, indicating that downstream companies are tentatively entering the market.
From the perspective of demand structure, there is uneven heating and cooling in different fields: demand in wire and cable, automotive parts, electronic appliances, power industry and other fields is steadily increasing, while the industrial and consumer goods markets still show a flat performance and have not shown significant improvement. It is worth noting that there has been a significant increase in orders for high-end specialty adhesives. According to feedback from multiple rubber mixing factories in Guangdong, orders for insulation adhesive, flame retardant adhesive, high-temperature resistant adhesive, ceramic adhesive, low-voltage variable adhesive, anti-static adhesive, oil resistant adhesive and other products increased by 15% year-on-year in the second quarter, reflecting the accelerated release of downstream demand for high-performance and differentiated materials.
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the domestic supply of mixed rubber remains high, but the overall supply of raw rubber is tight. The industrial inventory continues to decrease, the pressure on spot circulation has eased, and warehouse receipts have slightly decreased. Terminal demand has a certain degree of resilience, and the gap between supply and demand is gradually widening. However, the procurement volume of downstream silicon product factories is expected to decrease this week, and some companies choose to wait and see. However, the overall raw material inventory is still at a low level, and there is room for replenishment in the future.
The current price of mixed rubber has fundamental support below, but lacks upward momentum above, and the short-term market is mainly volatile. The high-level operation of raw rubber on the cost side provides a bottom line, while the limited acceptance of price increases by end users suppresses the upward space.
The logic of competition is quietly changing: from "price war" to "value competition"
It is worth pondering for the industry that the competition in the raw rubber and mixed rubber markets in the past was mostly focused on the "price war" level, with serious product homogenization and evenly matched enterprises. It cannot be denied that price wars are effective at certain stages, but they also leave behind "sequelae" - meager profits, weak innovation, and low customer stickiness.
However, if the concentration of industries exceeds a certain critical value, the rules of market competition will undergo a fundamental shift, and the focus will shift from price competition to value competition. Specifically, the core tracks of future value competition include:
Product segmentation differentiation and high-end: Special products such as insulation adhesive, flame retardant adhesive, high temperature resistant adhesive, ceramic adhesive, low-voltage variable adhesive, anti-static adhesive, oil resistant adhesive, etc. have shown a 15% increase in orders, indicating that the differentiation route has real demand support.
Technological barriers and integrated cost reduction: Enterprises with a complete industrial chain from monomers to raw rubber and then to mixed rubber will have an advantage in cost control and supply chain stability, forcing pure processing contract factories to exit.
Green, low-carbon and improved service system: With the expected implementation of environmental policies such as reducing emissions by 40%, low-carbon production processes and full lifecycle services will become important criteria for customers to choose suppliers.
Mr. Wu believes that the silicone industry is about to undergo a "major reshuffle"! The current market for raw rubber and mixed rubber is in a transitional period of alternating old and new competitive logic. In the short term, price volatility remains the main theme; But in the medium to long term, enterprises that take the lead in setting up differentiation, high-end, and green strategies are expected to gain an advantage in the next round of value competition.