Partial follow-up decline, consensus reached on maintaining stability after unified quotation. Yesterday, several individual factories made downward adjustments to the high prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 rubber based on the pricing spirit of industry conferences, breaking the long-standing pattern of high price differences. After the adjustment, the quotations of various manufacturers tended to be consistent, reaching a consensus on maintaining stability in stages. In terms of price, DMC generally lowered the price by 200 yuan/ton yesterday, with the mainstream quotation dropping to 14800 yuan/ton, and individual large orders (more than 5 vehicles) with transaction prices reaching around 14500 yuan/ton; The price of raw rubber has generally been adjusted to the range of 15500-15800 yuan/ton, and the overall quotation is basically on par with the online platform price of leading factories.
Later, after the unified adjustment of conference pricing, the monomer plant released further emission reduction plans simultaneously, emphasizing that the current adjustment is only a phased correction, which is intended to avoid stampede bidding in the market. Affected by this, some midstream and downstream enterprises, driven by the demand for replenishing inventory at the end of the month, choose to enter the market in moderation and stock up at low prices; However, there are still many companies with a bearish attitude, insisting on purchasing according to demand and looking more than moving, resulting in differentiated market procurement behavior. At the end of the month, with the quotes from various individual factories falling back to the same level, the high price difference problem that had previously plagued the market has been basically resolved. If the industry can effectively implement measures to reduce production and stabilize prices in the future, under the expectation of controllable decline risks, it is expected to trigger a new round of centralized replenishment in the middle and lower reaches, driving transaction recovery; On the contrary, if the reduction in production falls short of expectations and the cost transmission pressure in the middle and lower reaches remains high, bearish sentiment will continue to suppress actual transactions. Overall, it will take time for upstream emission reduction and control measures to be implemented. This week, individual factories may exchange centralized discounts for orders, and then gradually stabilize and digest them. Combined with the release of some essential demand at the end of the month, it is expected that DMC prices will maintain a stable consolidation pattern after this round of price cuts, and the possibility of another significant decline is low.
107 glue and silicone oil market: With the overall price reduction of DMC, the inverted pattern between 107 glue and DMC has been somewhat improved. This week, based on the pricing spirit of industry conferences, the high priced 107 glue was generally adjusted to 14800 yuan/ton externally. The actual transaction was negotiated according to the order volume, and the bottom price was not lower than 14300 yuan/ton. At present, some individual factories still have pre-sale order support, and the price advantage of leading factories still exists. In the past two days, there has been a slight rebound in inquiries for 107 adhesive, and some essential demand enterprises are gradually replenishing their positions at low prices.
In terms of silicone oil, due to the sustained high level of silicone ether, the current decline in DMC has not significantly eased the cost pressure on silicone oil companies. Currently, the mainstream quotation continues at 16200-17000 yuan/ton. However, under the guidance of low-priced silicone oil from individual factories, mainstream silicone oil companies face greater pressure to sell at high prices, and some large customers are forced to offer discounts on orders.
On the demand side, silicone adhesive companies have struggled to convert high costs in the past two months, resulting in reduced profits and insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, only maintaining small orders for essential needs. Currently in the traditional off-season, the progress of engineering projects is slow, and there is a significant pressure on payment collection. In order to alleviate profit pressure, silicone rubber companies tend to make inquiries for 107 glue and silicone oil at a lower price, and the high price transactions are generally average.
Overall, the market for 107 glue and silicone oil presents a contradictory pattern of "high cost and difficult shipment". If DMC stabilizes in the future, 107 glue and silicone oil are expected to enter a weak equilibrium stage simultaneously.