According to Kyodo News, as of the end of February, Japan's dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil was 94.2%. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be obstructed, causing Japan's oil imports to stagnate. The import of chemical raw materials such as naphtha, which are used as petroleum products, has also been interrupted, resulting in a sharp rise in prices of related products and a serious impact on the economy. With Japan releasing its oil reserves twice in March and May this year, the available consumption days have decreased from 254 days at the end of 2025 to 208 days on the 15th of this month. According to a report by Nomura, even if Japan's crude oil imports in May reach 60% of the same period last year and maintain that level from June, Japan's oil reserves are expected to be depleted by October 2027.
Another increase of 1000! The soaring cost has ignited another 'important raw material'! CCTV Finance News: Faced with the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials such as sulfuric acid, the titanium dioxide market has experienced a rare "sharp rise" in the past 20 years this year. As of May 15th, the national market average price has soared to 16733 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 26% from 13300 yuan/ton at the end of February. This round of price surge quickly transmitted to the terminal. According to a staff member of a titanium dioxide distribution company in Shanghai, they received the latest price adjustment letter on May 14th alone: the domestic price was increased by 1000 yuan per ton, and the overseas market price was increased by 150 US dollars per ton. In fact, since March this year, the company has received four consecutive rounds of price increase notices. This kind of continuous and concentrated upward trend in a short period of time is extremely rare in the industry cycle of the past two decades.
Observation of the Organic Silicon Market on Tuesday (May 19th): After the "Golden Three Silver Four", the supply-demand game intensified, and Xinjiang's large factories "exchanged price for quantity" affected the sentiment of the raw rubber and mixed rubber markets
Entering Tuesday (May 19th), the overall organic silicon market showed a weak and stable operating trend, with a stable trading atmosphere. It is widely believed in the industry that the market has successfully passed the traditional peak season test of "gold three silver four", and the supply-demand balance is quietly reversing. Currently, the prices of silicon metal and methanol on the raw material side have fallen, leading to a weakening of cost support. Despite the continued tight supply of spot goods and stable quotes from most individual factories, the downward adjustment of quotes by major companies in Xinjiang is affecting market sentiment, leading to a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream and a stalemate in the price game between upstream and downstream.
As of May 18th, the price data shows that the mainstream quotation range for DMC is 14800-15300 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang market for metal silicon 421 # is stable at 9300-9700 yuan/ton, 107 rubber is priced at 15200-15500 yuan/KG, silicone oil is priced at 16200-16800 yuan/ton, and raw rubber is priced at 15500-16100 yuan/ton. At present, mainstream individual enterprises mainly focus on large-scale production, while the quotation for small and urgent orders has slightly increased. Although some devices are still in the maintenance period, the overall market supply is still abundant and there has not been a significant shortage.
In terms of the raw rubber market, both price increases and discounts coexist, and the price difference between enterprises may widen
In the sub market of raw rubber, production enterprises in Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and other places have a strong willingness to raise prices, with offers generally maintained at around 15800-16100 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers have provided feedback that due to the production schedule covering early June, the current pricing system remains unchanged to ensure stable delivery. However, the strategy of "trading price for quantity" by large factories in Xinjiang has reappeared, with a discount of 500 yuan per ton, and the actual transaction price after the discount approaches 15000 yuan per ton. According to sources, the implementation of this strategy, accompanied by strict conditions such as full payment upfront and bulk purchase of 300 tons, is triggering a hidden wave of market sentiment.
The author has learned that after entering May, the order volume of many raw rubber enterprises has gradually fallen back to normal levels. Industry experts have analyzed that with the gradual digestion of pre stocking and the approaching traditional off-season in June, although upstream raw material prices are still high, the upward space for raw rubber prices may narrow, and there is short-term adjustment pressure. It is expected that the price of raw rubber in June may come under pressure and decline, but with the support of high costs, the downward space is relatively limited. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely monitor the actual transaction situation of large factories in Xinjiang, and it is expected that the price difference between enterprises in the raw rubber market will further expand in the short term. Industry analysis suggests that the next market focus will be on verifying the actual effectiveness of Xinjiang's large factories' 'price for volume' policy, as well as the downstream demand side's ability to undertake it.