On Friday, an industry conference is about to be held in Yunnan. The conference will focus on emission reduction and further coordinate price adjustments. While optimizing the industry's self-discipline mechanism, we will deepen our strategic layout and promote the industry's "anti internal competition" towards a sustainable development path. From the perspective of individual factories, the current DMC quotation is firm at 14700-15500 yuan/ton. With the long-term negative trend and sufficient pre-sale orders, the inventory of the enterprise is basically not under pressure, and the price is expected to rise in the short term. In terms of demand, the consensus reached at the upstream meeting will further intensify the bullish expectations and concerns about supply shortages of mid to downstream enterprises. It is expected that enterprises will actively purchase essential goods this week; However, in the bullish atmosphere before the holiday, most companies have already released their essential needs in advance. Currently, the pursuit of high prices is cautious, and the amount of high price replenishment is limited. It is expected that the silicone market will show a slight upward trend in the short term, and the specific increase needs to be closely monitored based on the implementation of various parties after the meeting and the emission reduction plans of related devices.
Industrial silicon: On the supply side, due to the approaching wet season, there is an expectation of a decrease in electricity prices, and some factories have increased their enthusiasm for resuming production. The significant increase in supply continues to suppress the overall market. On the demand side, news of production cuts and shutdowns by some polysilicon companies has emerged, leading to a decrease in demand for industrial silicon and other raw materials; The organic silicon monomer plant has started production steadily, maintaining the demand for essential purchases. Overall, the combination of cost support and historically low prices has led to a high reluctance of companies to sell and support prices. As of May 7th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2609 has returned to over 9000 yuan, at 9080 yuan/ton; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon has risen to 9400-10000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan. In the future, the industrial silicon market is constrained by demand, with poor destocking and limited room for rebound. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the post holiday sulfuric acid market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with prices fluctuating at high levels; In terms of soda ash, downstream demand is average, and manufacturers have poor inventory management, resulting in some discounts on new orders. The quotation for light alkali and heavy alkali continues to be 940-1570 yuan/ton. In terms of pricing, the mainstream price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber remains stable at 6800-8000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are mostly centered around core customers, with limited room for individual bargaining. On the demand side, downstream silicone rubber companies are in the post holiday stage of returning to the market, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Most silicone rubber companies have moderately replenished their inventory before the holiday, and the current raw material inventory can still support short-term production. Therefore, they mainly purchase white carbon black at low prices for essential needs, and there is no centralized replenishment action. In addition, silicone rubber enterprises are facing cost conversion pressure, especially some enterprises that mainly use ordinary rubber compounds have meager profits, and their acceptance of the price increase of auxiliary material white carbon black is limited, further suppressing the upward space of white carbon black. Overall, the current precipitated white carbon black market is in a balanced stage of "cost support and demand waiting to recover". It is expected that the short-term market will be mainly stable, and prices are unlikely to have significant fluctuations. We need to pay attention to the recovery of orders from silicone rubber enterprises and the price trends of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and soda ash in the future. If downstream demand for replenishment gradually releases, there may be a slight increase in the white carbon black market, but the magnitude is limited.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the tight supply situation in market A intensified this week. The price quoted in Shandong region was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from 2600 yuan/ton before the holiday, and the cost faced strong support from gas silicon. In terms of demand, the gradual recovery of demand in the terminal consumer market has provided favorable support to the market, driving the gradual increase in order volume, especially in the fields of liquid glue and gas-phase glue, where the application continues to expand and demand steadily increases. The procurement demand for gas-phase white carbon black has significantly increased, driving a good overall market transaction atmosphere. Overall, the customer channels of current silicon dioxide manufacturers are stable, with some focusing on maintaining core customers and being reluctant to sell externally. Currently, the high-end price of gas-phase white carbon black with a specific surface area of 200 yuan/ton is 25000-32000 yuan/ton, and the low-end price is 20000-22000 yuan/ton. The market continues to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend.
Overall, with the follow-up of downstream resumption of work and stocking up, the organic silicon market is expected to operate steadily and explore an upward trend. Considering that a moderate amount of stocking has been carried out before the holiday, the downstream mainly focuses on digesting existing inventory, and the actual increase in new orders is limited. The follow-up needs to focus on the pace of emission reduction implementation and demand follow-up after the Yunnan conference.