Official media reports: The warmth of the real estate market is beginning to show, and market expectations are undergoing positive changes. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai has reached new highs in nearly 15 months and 5 years respectively; High premium land parcels have emerged in the land auction markets of Guangzhou and Hangzhou. A series of signals indicate that the real estate market, led by the "wind vane" of first tier and hot second tier cities, is showing an increasing trend of stability, and industry confidence has entered a sustained repair channel.
Friday (April 24th) Organic Silicon Market Observation: The sharp increase in silicone oil exports coexists with cost pressure
The author learned from several large silicone oil factories in East China that due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for polydimethylsiloxane starting from April 1st, the "export rush" effect was significant in the first quarter, and the export volume of multiple silicone oil enterprises increased by as much as 43.5% in March. According to customs data, the cumulative export of domestic polysiloxane in the first quarter was 206000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 52.99%; The export volume in March reached a historic high of 98200 tons. A company executive said, "The centralized shipment before the cancellation of tax refunds has basically come to an end. Currently, the factory is making every effort to deliver the pre-sale orders in the early stage, and some orders have been postponed until late May
At the same time, companies producing silicone oil for cracking materials are facing new cost challenges. Multiple cracking plants have provided feedback to the author that the recent surge in sulfuric acid prices has significantly increased production costs. Currently, the price of cracking material silicone oil ranges from 13700-14200 yuan/ton, and the industry's operating rate remains at around 75%. However, the supply of raw material burrs (waste silicone) is sufficient, with a transaction price of 3850-3950 yuan/ton (excluding tax), and there has not been a shortage yet.
MC: Tight spot prices drive a general increase at the opening: On Friday, the C organic silicon DMC and D4 markets opened with a general increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. According to the Global Organosilicon Network's monitoring on April 23, the DMC quotes of most individual factories have risen to over 15000 yuan/ton. D4 has synchronously increased to 14800-16000 yuan/ton. From the supply side perspective, the industry's equipment continues to undergo alternating maintenance, and the overall operating rate is still at a relatively low level of around 65%. Due to the concentrated delivery of early orders by enterprises and the diversion of export sales, the available spot goods in the market are relatively tight.
On the downstream side, after consuming the previous inventory, enterprises have shown a willingness to replenish their inventory as needed, but in the face of current high prices, they tend to maintain an on-demand procurement rhythm. Traders have provided feedback that actual negotiations have shown clear characteristics: "individual orders are sold at high prices, while large orders leave room for negotiation". Overall, the abundant pre-sale orders in the hands of manufacturers provide them with the confidence to raise prices, while downstream companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that DMC prices will maintain a stable to strong trend in the short term.
New silicone oil: Cost transmission drives industry price increases: In terms of new silicone oil, cost support continues to strengthen. At present, the price of silicone ether has risen to 35000 yuan/ton. With the dual promotion of DMC and silicone ether, the mainstream quotation range of dimethyl silicone oil has moved up to 16200-17200 yuan/ton today. Faced with high cost pressure, some silicone oil manufacturers adopt a strategy of selling with limited quantities. Enterprises generally focus on digesting existing inventory and controlling orders to balance profits.
It is worth noting that cost pressure has been fully transmitted to downstream industrial chains. Monitoring data shows that downstream industries of silicone oil, such as lubricants, cosmetics, electronics and electrical equipment, medical devices, textiles and leather, food processing, automobiles, optical equipment, aerospace, and coatings, have recently experienced collective price increases ranging from 5% to 10%. The combination of the traditional peak season of "Golden Three and Silver Four" and global purchasing sentiment further supports the high operation of silicone oil prices.
Industry analysis suggests that with the official cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the export of polydimethylsiloxane in the second quarter is expected to decrease in volume. But industry insiders point out that in the medium to long term, this will force companies to bid farewell to the extensive growth relying on tax refunds and transform towards high value-added specialty silicone oil. The current market is still in a long short game stage: the tight supply side pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. It is expected that the recent market trend will mainly focus on digesting gains.