In the latter half of the year, the organic silicon market continued to operate in a relatively strong trend under the dual effects of supply side contraction and cost side strengthening. In terms of cost, the focus of the domestic methanol spot market has recently shifted downwards, and yesterday's futures also fell under pressure; However, according to Business News Agency on April 20th, multiple large methanol plants in Iran have shut down, including Sabalan, Kimiya, Bushehr, Marjan, and ZPC, with a total annual production capacity of about 8.25 million tons, accounting for an important share of global supply. Supply disruptions will significantly reduce spot market supply. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is volatile, and the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. The uncertainty of import supply continues to provide potential support for the market. In the short term, methanol continues to fluctuate at a high level. Strong cost support, coupled with the overall low operating load of individual factories, and some enterprises' DMC products mainly for self use, has led to continuous tightening of the supply side; At the same time, most enterprise orders have been scheduled until early May, and there is a strong reluctance to sell. Yesterday, some individual factories in East China rose another 200 yuan, and DMC reported 15200 yuan/ton, D4、 107 rubber is reported at 15500 yuan/ton, and raw rubber is reported at 16200 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer factories continue to close their positions on DMC, further exacerbating market concerns about supply gaps and rising costs, and bullish sentiment is rapidly rising.
On the other hand, with the gradual digestion of low-priced inventory in the early stage, downstream enterprises have accelerated their procurement pace for essential needs driven by the upward trend. If the upstream releases the May price adjustment news again, it may trigger a new round of centralized stocking before May Day. It is worth noting that last week Xinyue Chemical announced a price increase of 10% or more for organic silicon products starting from May 1st, further strengthening the market's bullish expectations with the price increase actions of international giants. Overall, the reluctance of DMC spot sales and the need for replenishment in the middle and lower reaches may resonate with the market, further strengthening the tight balance pattern in the upstream and driving the price center of gravity to continue upward. In the near future, we need to focus on the downstream replenishment efforts. If the demand follow-up exceeds expectations, we cannot rule out the possibility of a temporary acceleration in market prices.
Industrial silicon: On the supply side, under the influence of rising electricity costs, the southwest region is currently maintaining reduced production, and the number of furnaces in Xinjiang has also decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in overall supply. But downstream demand lacks improvement, polycrystalline silicon demand is not driven enough, and organic silicon monomer plants are also maintaining emission reduction. The overall industrial silicon market continues to experience oversupply, and prices lack effective rebound momentum. As of April 20th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2609 was 2690 yuan/ton; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon in stock continues at 9300-10000 yuan/ton. It is expected that prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In terms of operating rate: the overall fluctuation is not significant, maintaining between 65% and 68%. However, in the case of demand follow-up, some individual factories may increase their load appropriately to ensure subsequent production scheduling.