The shortage of naphtha caused by the Middle East conflict is affecting various industries in South Korea, with plastic products such as "garbage bags" and plastic containers bearing the brunt. With the emergence of a "rush to buy" specialized garbage bags in many places, some large supermarkets and convenience stores have implemented purchase restrictions. From the 22nd to the 29th of this month, the sales of garbage bags in Yimaide's chain supermarkets increased by 287% year-on-year, and from the 23rd to the 28th, the sales of garbage bags in Lotte Mart stores increased by 140% year-on-year. From the 22nd to the 26th, the sales of specialized garbage bags at GS convenience stores increased sharply by 278% month on month, and the sales of food specific garbage bags also increased significantly by 278%.
Entering Wednesday, the silicone market is experiencing undercurrents beneath the seemingly calm surface. Despite the temporary stability of market prices, the underlying supporting factors have undergone profound changes - with the dual support of good pre-sale conditions and sustained high costs, manufacturers' willingness to raise prices has become increasingly firm, and the focus of spot market negotiations has risen in sync with actual transaction prices. Some individual factories still choose to close down and stop reporting, further exacerbating the tense atmosphere on the supply side.
As of March 31st, the specific prices have confirmed this trend: DMC's local individual factories have risen by another 300 yuan, with the mainstream approaching 15000 yuan/ton; Luxi D4 rose 100 yuan to 14300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of 107 glue has risen to 153 million yuan/ton. Driven by the sentiment of "buying up, not buying down", mid to downstream enterprises have previously released phased replenishment demands. Currently, the inventory of large mid to downstream enterprises can meet production in April. At present, most downstream companies are in a state of digesting pre inventory, and only a few enterprises carry out small-scale low-priced replenishment according to their own situation. From the perspective of order structure, the pre-sale orders of various individual factories have generally been arranged until mid to late April, which means that the available spot resources are still tight in the short term.
This resilience is not an isolated phenomenon. The pressure on the upstream raw material side is also being transmitted synchronously, further confirming the inevitability of a 5-10% price increase in the silicone adhesive industry - cost driven is gradually penetrating downstream along the industry chain, and April will be the key period for implementing price increases.
From the internal observation of the supply side, the current pre-sale order volume of individual factories has increased, and the phenomenon of device maintenance and load reduction is expected to increase in April, which will continue to shrink the actual supply in the coming month. In terms of market mentality, individual factories have successively released signals of price increases, easing the bearish atmosphere downstream. Some hesitant buyers in the early stage have begun to accept high quotes.
The cost support is still strong. The raw material methanol continues to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. However, the industrial silicon links upstream of the industrial chain have shown differentiation: large factories in Xinjiang have maintained stable production, while manufacturers in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and other places have accumulated inventory, and the overall supply of goods is still in a surplus state. With the downward trend in market prices, there has been a certain increase in futures and spot trading volume. However, from a medium-term perspective, demand is still contracting, and the surplus pattern of industrial silicon has not yet reversed.
If we broaden our perspective, it is not difficult to discover a more fundamental change: overall, the fundamentals of the current silicone adhesive market have fundamentally improved. The supply side of silicone adhesive has entered the stage of orderly clearing and compliance from disorderly expansion, with a shift in growth rate; The demand for silicone adhesive has gained stronger growth momentum under the outbreak of the "second curve" in new energy, photovoltaic adhesive, industrial adhesive, electronic adhesive, and other fields.