Saudi Arabian oil officials are anxiously predicting to what extent oil prices may soar if the Iran war and its disruption to energy supply continue - and the prediction results are causing them great concern. Several oil officials from Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producing country in the Gulf, have stated that their basic forecast is that if supply disruptions continue until late April, oil prices may soar above $180 per barrel. Reaching this level of oil prices may trigger an economic recession or prompt consumers to change their behavior, thereby severely suppressing demand.
Organosilicon Weekly Report (March 16-22): The burning cost ignites the entire industry chain, and the market oscillates at a high level to face changes!
Last week, the silicone market continued to demonstrate a strong trend in the fierce game between cost and demand. The cost pressure caused by the soaring prices of upstream raw materials is precisely transmitted along the industrial chain, prompting price increases across the entire line from individual factories to downstream silicone rubber enterprises. The overall market presents a pattern of "strong production and sales", but high prices have a certain degree of suppression on the purchasing willingness of the middle and lower reaches, and the short-term market may mainly fluctuate at a high level.
Cost side: Methanol surge ignites fuse!
Methanol, the core raw material of organosilicon, has become the primary driving force behind this round of market trend. Last week, the methanol futures MA2605 contract continued its strong momentum, opening high and moving high, successfully reaching the 3200 yuan/ton mark. Since early March, the cumulative increase of the contract has exceeded 40%. Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical conflicts have continued to intensify market concerns about supply, directly driving up methanol prices. The "cost fire" ignited by the continuous surge in international crude oil prices and geopolitical conflicts has been precisely transmitted along the industrial chain, ultimately igniting the "powder keg" of the silicone industry, and cost support has become the most solid bottom logic of the current market.