At present, the organic silicon market presents a supply-demand game pattern. From the supply side, the price of raw material methanol continues to rise, with futures price 2605 rising to 2800 yuan/ton and spot price also reaching the range of 2200-2630 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong bottom support for DMC prices. At the same time, with the continuous deepening of emission reduction policies, some supplies continue to be tight, and individual factories have a strong willingness to raise prices. DMC prices remain firm at 14000-14300 yuan/ton.
On the demand side, the continuous rise in prices of bulk raw materials and various additives has boosted market sentiment, but it has also further squeezed the survival space of small and medium-sized downstream manufacturers, resulting in a decrease in operating rates for these enterprises and a significant weakening of their ability to undertake high priced raw materials. Combined with the poor performance of the current terminal consumer market, downstream enterprises generally have low purchasing intentions. In this situation, downstream enterprises have intensified their wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, and under the mentality of risk avoidance, they will continue to purchase small orders for essential needs in the short term.
Overall, under the dual effects of cost support and weak demand, it is expected that the silicone market will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term, with limited room for price fluctuations.
Raw rubber market: The mainstream quotation for raw rubber remained stable at 15100-15300 yuan/ton this week. From the supply side perspective, most rubber companies currently focus on delivering early-stage orders, and overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, in recent times, downstream inventory has been sufficient and market purchasing power has been insufficient. In order to avoid the pressure of accumulating inventory in the future, some raw rubber companies have actually sold and offered profit margins, leading to a divergence in market sentiment.
In terms of demand, downstream rubber mixing enterprises have basically completed the basic procurement targets, and only a small number of urgent orders have been added this week. Against the backdrop of weak terminal demand, even if some raw rubber offers small discounts, it is difficult to stimulate large-scale procurement demand, and instead exacerbates market bearish sentiment, resulting in less than ideal overall new order transactions.
In the future, the end of month stocking node is approaching, and the inventory of some rubber mixing enterprises has been gradually digested, or there may be a certain demand for stocking, which is expected to promote market stability. In short, the current supply-demand tug of war continues, and market transactions are slightly deadlocked. It is expected that the raw rubber market will continue to operate steadily.