Entering Thursday, the domestic silicone market continued to operate steadily. The current market trading atmosphere is relatively positive. Against the backdrop of individual factories generally maintaining load reduction operations and plans to further reduce emissions by 35%, midstream and downstream enterprises have also made adjustments to their subsequent stocking layout. Most enterprises, while completing monthly basic stocking, consider the potential cost increase caused by the subsequent contraction of raw material supply, coupled with the resumption of work after the holiday and the gradual improvement of transaction atmosphere. In order to ensure smooth production in the future, there is a possibility to increase the stocking of raw materials. However, at present, most downstream enterprises still have sufficient raw material inventory, which can basically support until the end of March or mid to early April. Therefore, at this stage, procurement is still mainly cautious and essential, and the overall market transaction rhythm is stable with some progress, without concentrated volume increase.
In terms of individual factories, due to good follow-up of new orders and strong support from pre-sale orders in the early stage, the current offer remains firm. In addition, in terms of methanol, yesterday's futures prices surged and fell back, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 2553 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the complete shutdown of production in Qatar, the market has entered a positive state, with continuous increase in transactions and continuous depletion of domestic inventory. Against the backdrop of a strong reversal in the supply and demand pattern, enterprise supply is tightening, and the average spot price has risen to 1976.81 yuan/ton. Among them, most enterprises are closing down and reluctant to sell. It is expected that the price of methanol will continue to rise in the future, driven by downstream price chasing procurement, providing certain cost support for individual factories.
107 glue and silicone oil market: This week, the market prices of 107 glue and silicone oil have increased with the price of raw materials. Currently, the mainstream price of 107 glue is 14800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of silicone oil is 15800~16100 yuan, both rising by 300 yuan. In terms of supply, due to sufficient pre-sale orders in the early stage, the operating rate of some 107 rubber and silicone oil enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure of the industry is controllable.
In terms of demand, some downstream silicone rubber companies have already issued price increase letters in the early stage, and while costs are being transmitted downwards, they are gradually accepting the current high priced sources. However, due to the fact that most large customers have completed centralized procurement before the holiday and the end market is still weak, it is difficult to see significant incremental orders in the short term under general demand, and the overall pace of on-demand procurement is maintained.
Overall, the current market supply flow is smooth, coupled with ongoing downstream projects, and the demand for replenishment is expected to continue to follow up. Against the backdrop of stable cost support, it is expected that the prices of 107 glue and silicone oil will continue to rise in the short term, and the market is expected to continue its steady and positive operation trend.
Cracking material silicone oil market: Affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, reduced by-products of oil refining, and the impact of the new energy industry, the price of sulfur at the Yangtze River port has recently risen sharply to 4400 yuan/ton, and the market's bullish expectations continue to rise, thereby driving up the price of sulfuric acid. Promote the procurement and production costs of cracking material enterprises to increase. At the same time, the price of new materials has also increased, which has provided some support for cracking material companies to raise prices. Currently, the price of cracking material silicone oil is between 12800-13000 yuan/ton, and the order transaction is smooth, narrowing the room for negotiation. In the future, if the prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid continue to operate at high levels, the low price competition among cracking material enterprises will be alleviated, and it is expected to maintain a stable and upward trend in the near future.
In terms of waste silicone, currently, the raw material market is booming, and the supply of waste silicone exceeds demand, making it difficult to keep up with the increase. The operating rate of silicone product enterprises has rebounded, while recyclers have a narrow profit margin and slow receiving pace. In order to accelerate inventory turnover, silicone product factories have increased the overall processing speed of raw materials. In terms of cracking materials, the enterprise has sufficient inventory of waste silicone gel, which gives it a bargaining advantage. It maintains a price cutting procurement for raw materials, and the current price of raw materials for cracking is between 3300-3500 yuan/ton (excluding tax). It is expected that the waste silicone gel market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.