This week, the organic silicon market has entered a critical period of competition after a "good start". The core driving logic has shifted from the pre holiday "supply side collaborative production reduction" to a deep tug of war between "cost side geopolitical impact" and "cautious follow-up on the demand side". With the sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the supply chain of methanol as a basic raw material for organic silicon has been tightened instantly, and a price restructuring of the entire industry chain triggered by the cost side is unfolding.
Methanol skyrockets, significantly strengthening cost support
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the weekend has become a key variable in reversing market expectations. Given the ongoing Iranian counterattack with no signs of easing, the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is seriously threatened. As a core region in the global methanol supply chain, Iran's methanol production capacity will reach 15.51 million tons in 2023, accounting for 18% of the world's total production and over 90% for export.
For China, the dependence on methanol imports is relatively high - the import volume has remained stable at 11-15 million tons per year in recent years, accounting for about 15% -20% of the total consumption. Among them, Iranian sources have long played a core role: importing 3 million tons from Iran in 2023 (accounting for 30% of the total), increasing to 3.5 million tons in 2024, and expected to reach 3.8 million tons in 2025.
Yesterday, the domestic methanol market surged in response, and manufacturers were completely shut down. This has sparked a strong reaction in the silicone industry, as the production of silicone relies heavily on methanol, with a consumption ratio of nearly 1:1.13 per ton, and more than half of the monomer plants rely on imported methanol. The cost side support has become extremely rigid, setting the tone for price increases across the entire industry chain. As of March 2, 2026, the mainstream quotations for DMC are 14000-14500 yuan/ton, silicone oil 15500-16100 yuan/ton, 107 glue 14800-14900 yuan/ton, and raw glue 15100-15500 yuan/ton.
Raw rubber: Breaking through the five thousand mark, leading enterprises differentiate their strategies
Under the strong push of the cost side, the raw rubber market continues to soar. Monitoring data shows that the spot price of raw rubber rose by 200-300 yuan/ton yesterday, and the transaction price broke through the 15000 yuan/ton mark. Multiple individual enterprises have continuously raised their quotations.
It is worth noting the forward-looking strategy of leading enterprises. As early as late February, leading enterprises adopted a phased profit sharing strategy - while strengthening their own emission reduction pace, they also gave profits to A-class customers to lock in orders, successfully exceeding the pre-sale orders for March and April. This operation stabilized core customers before the price increase and provided order support for subsequent industry coordinated price increases. Currently, rubber companies generally have sufficient pre-sale orders, low inventory pressure, and strong willingness to raise prices.
Rubber mixing: trapped in the "scissors gap" dilemma, with a stalemate in transactions
However, the transmission chain of price increases has encountered obstacles in the middle reaches. Despite the continuous rise of raw rubber, the mixed rubber market is showing a wait-and-see situation with long and short positions and a stalemate in transactions, with a significantly slower trading pace. At present, the price of conventional hardness mixed rubber is in the range of 14000-14300 yuan/ton, with only a slight increase in some areas. Industry players are mostly observing the future trend.
Behind it is the increasingly intense cost pressure and the inversion of production and sales. The continuous rise in raw rubber prices after the holiday has further increased the cost pressure on rubber mixing enterprises, but downstream procurement follow-up is limited, resulting in a significant inversion between the quotes and costs of some rubber mixing manufacturers. The overall production of the industry remains at a medium low level, and enterprises still have a certain amount of inventory to be digested. There is currently no significant relief on the cost side, and production and sales pressure continues. The overall market is in a supply-demand game.