As the countdown to the Spring Festival approaches, the silicone market has gradually entered a "closed period" this week. New orders have been quiet, and individual factories are insisting on reducing emissions and maintaining low inventory levels, preparing for the post holiday market. Looking back at 2025, the organic silicon industry as a whole showed a pattern of first suppressing and then rising, and stabilizing at the end of the year. The average price for the whole year of 2025 was 12532.27 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.95% compared to last year; The highest price within the year is 14500 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 10500 yuan/ton, with a price difference of up to 3900 yuan. Various types of organic silicon products have gradually risen from their low levels in the first half of the year, and the industry's profit margins and concentration have been restored and improved simultaneously, accelerating the process of import substitution. In the second half of the year, with the gradual implementation of a 30% reduction in production in the industry, the effect of supply contraction continues to emerge. Coupled with improved downstream demand and export growth, the industry is gradually recovering, and core product prices are steadily rising, maintaining high levels at the end of the year. At present, the DMC quotation has remained firm at 13800-14000 yuan/ton after rising; It is expected that the market will show a moderate rebound trend after the holiday, and the process of industry profit recovery is expected to slowly advance.
Before and after the Spring Festival, the supply side of the industry continued to actively adjust. Against the backdrop of energy conservation and consumption reduction policies, as well as some enterprises failing to meet their production reduction expectations in the early stages, it is expected that the industry's operating load will remain at a relatively low level in February. Major production enterprises generally plan to continue controlling their production pace based on their own situation, in order to further improve the market supply and demand relationship.
At the same time, the reshuffling of the silicone industry is also accelerating, with a further increase in concentration. On the other hand, the policy of canceling export tax rebates for organic silicon and photovoltaic products has stimulated the "export rush" behavior in the intermediate and photovoltaic links, which has provided temporary demand support for upstream individual products. In the long run, the survival space of enterprises that lack full industry chain support and rely on low price competition is still shrinking. Top enterprises, relying on their integrated supporting advantages, have formed significant barriers in cost control and product premium capabilities. Moreover, overseas organic silicon production capacity continues to withdraw due to cost and environmental pressures, freeing up more space for domestic product exports. The dual contraction of the supply side both internally and externally will lay a solid foundation for industry price stabilization and upward trend. It is expected that by 2026, the supply side of the organic silicon industry will continue its rigid contraction trend, shifting towards "supply demand balance" and the industry will shift from "quantity increase" to "quality improvement".