Entering Friday, the overall operation of the silicone market remained stable. From the supply side, individual factories continue to maintain a reduced load production pace, with ample pre-sale orders and controllable inventory pressure. In terms of demand, the terminal market is still showing signs of weakness, with some midstream and downstream enterprises gradually shutting down. The phenomenon of manufacturers taking holidays has increased, and transactions have entered a sluggish state, resulting in an overall flat performance. However, some companies are still operating normally to deliver orders on schedule and purchasing raw materials from neighboring companies, with ongoing follow-up on spot replenishment.
In addition, based on their different business and profit situations, downstream expectations for the post holiday market have diverged: some midstream and downstream enterprises hold certain confidence in the future market and still carry out moderate stocking before the holiday; However, most companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude and have no intention of hoarding goods. It is expected that pre holiday transactions will still be mainly for essential needs.
Overall, the current market supply and demand relationship is relatively balanced, and single factory quotations are mainly stable. It is expected that the 30% emission reduction deployment will continue to be implemented after the holiday. If the demand side cooperates to follow up and stock up, the market is expected to launch a new round of upward trend. It is expected that the silicone market will show a stable and positive trend in the short term.
On the cost side of industrial silicon: On the supply side, the production of industrial silicon remains high in the north and low in the south, with the southwest region experiencing increasing production cuts and production at historically low levels; The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, a northern region, has not yet been implemented, but there has been a certain decrease in production and overall supply. On the demand side, the country has cancelled the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value-added tax, and there is an expectation of an increase in short-term demand for polycrystalline silicon. However, due to the reduction in production by major polycrystalline silicon manufacturers and the contraction of supply, the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. Organic silicon monomer factories are also digesting their own inventory, and the demand is limited under the load reduction mode.
Overall, under the pattern of supply and demand reduction, there is little room for upward movement in industrial silicon prices. As of February 5th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2605 was 8605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon in stock continues at 9800-10200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the industrial silicon market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.