Silicone Market Weekly Report (January 26th February 1st): Supply contraction expectations dominate the market, demand differentiation leads to structured price trends
This week, the domestic silicone market has shown structured operational characteristics in the supply-demand game. The price of core raw material DMC remains stable, setting the tone for the market. Downstream product trends show differentiation: 107 rubber and raw rubber have firm quotations supported by cost and supply; The performance of the silicone oil market varies depending on the acceptance of downstream sectors. Overall, the expectation of supply contraction in the industry continues to rise, which has become the core factor driving the current market mentality. However, the uneven demand in various downstream fields makes it difficult for the market to form a unilateral trend, and it is expected that the market will mainly consolidate at a high level before the holiday.
Core raw material DMC: Price stability continues, market sentiment tends to be rational
Last week, DMC prices remained stable. As of February 1st, the mainstream quotation for DMC in China remains in the range of 13800-14000 yuan/ton. Although the expectation of supply contraction in the industry provides potential upward support for prices, the market's pursuit of gains has fallen somewhat. This is mainly due to the narrowing of the pre holiday time window, with midstream and downstream enterprises mainly focusing on essential procurement, and the stocking process is basically coming to an end. Market trading has shifted from actively following up on price increases to rational digestion and acceptance of existing high prices, and buyers and sellers have entered a new equilibrium point.
Downstream Product Market: Parallel Cost Support and Demand Differentiation
Under the stable DMC cost platform and supply side disturbances, the market performance of major downstream products shows structured differences:
1. 107 glue: limited output, significant structural differentiation on the demand side
Last week, the overall price of 107 glue remained stable. As of February 1st, the mainstream quotation for 107 glue is concentrated between 14500-14900 yuan/ton. On the supply side, due to the expected contraction of DMC supply, the production of 107 adhesive is simultaneously limited, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, there are significant structural features: the demand for new energy (such as sealants) and electronic and electrical fields remains relatively strong; However, the traditional construction industry is constrained by the off-season of winter construction, and demand performance continues to be weak. This differentiation makes it difficult to increase the volume of the 107 glue market, but the price bottom support is clear.
2. Silicone oil: price differentiation and increased downstream acceptance
Last week, there was a pattern of price differentiation in the silicone oil market. As of the end of the reporting period, the mainstream quotation for domestic methyl silicone oil is between 15500-16100 yuan/ton. From the demand side, the demand in the fields of new energy, textiles, and daily chemical products remains stable; It is particularly noteworthy that the demand for "export grabbing" in the photovoltaic field has continued to increase due to overseas market factors, which has strongly stimulated the consumption of silicone oil. As a result, although prices remain high, downstream enterprises have increased their acceptance of high prices for silicone oil compared to the previous period, and the market's high-end prices have been maintained.
3. Raw rubber: driven by both cost and supply, with a sturdy bottom price
As of February 1st, the mainstream quotation for raw rubber remains in the firm range of 14800-15000 yuan/ton. Its strong price is mainly driven by a dual factor: on the one hand, upstream raw material costs continue to operate at high levels; On the other hand, the expectation of industry equipment load reduction and production reduction continues to strengthen. Under this dual driving force, the bottom support performance of raw rubber product prices is strong, the bearish sentiment in the market is weak, and the quotation remains stable at a high level.