On January 26, the gold price broke through the historic threshold of US $5000, driven by the so-called "currency devaluation transaction". In the context of continued tension in the geographical situation, doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve and high multinational debt, investors were worried about the stability of major currencies, and gold was regarded as an important means of value storage. The continuous purchase of gold by global central banks has also supported the price of gold. Under the high market sentiment, gold prices may fluctuate in the short term, but there is still a long-term upward trend.
Industrial silicon is facing a dual pressure of supply and demand, with a drop of nearly 40%. Export tax rebates for photovoltaics and batteries will be cancelled. In the short term, industrial silicon will be driven by the "export rush" of photovoltaics, and there may be phased support for demand in the first quarter of 2026 to alleviate inventory pressure. However, in the long run, with the slowdown in the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity and the weak growth in non photovoltaic fields, it is difficult for demand to have substantial improvement. Combined with the release of over 4 million tons of new production capacity in 2024-2026, the pattern of loose supply is difficult to change. At present, the high point of prices has dropped by nearly 40%, and the industry is facing a deep reshuffle. Inefficient production capacity is accelerating its clearance, and prices will continue to be under pressure. The profit margin of enterprises is systematically compressed.
Overview of Organic Silicon Market on January 27th: The overall price of DMC in the domestic market remains stable, with an average market price anchored at 13850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The cost side's support for the market appears relatively weak. Before the holiday, small and medium-sized industrial silicon manufacturers in the northwest region lacked confidence, and there were no plans to resume production of furnaces that had been shut down earlier. Moreover, the market outlook after the holiday was biased towards a negative outlook; Combined with the reduction in production during the dry season in Southwest China, it is expected that the industrial silicon operating rate will further decline after the holiday, and the loosening of the cost side may have a certain impact on DMC prices.
The current market trading atmosphere is mild, and individual enterprises benefit from good pre-sale scheduling. Spot supply is tight due to early order delivery, which supports the continued strong trend of prices. The demand side presents a pattern of "external heating and internal cooling". Although foreign trade orders in downstream fields such as silicone rubber and silicone oil have rebounded, domestic market demand remains flat, and downstream mainly consumes existing raw material inventory. Actual transactions are mostly sporadic small orders. Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that short-term market prices will be mainly characterized by "large stability and small movements". On the supply side, the delivery pressure of pre-sale orders has led to a shortage of circulating goods in the spot market; On the psychological level, individual enterprises showed a strong willingness to raise prices before the holiday, while downstream customers mostly held a wait-and-see attitude. Under the game between the two, the market is likely to maintain its current balance and is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations.