In 2025, sulfur prices will soar significantly, with an annual increase of 116.5%, ranking first on the annual increase list of bulk commodities in Shengyi Society. Market analysis suggests that this may indicate that the sulfur industry is entering a new development cycle. Sulfur is an important basic chemical raw material, and the sulfuric acid produced from it is widely used in the production of phosphate fertilizers and compound fertilizers. It is also a key intermediate product in the industrial manufacturing and new energy industry chain, and its price changes have a significant impact on the costs and profits of upstream and downstream enterprises. Driven by the industry's prosperity, a leading organic silicon enterprise with layout in the sulfur and sulfuric acid industry chain has shown outstanding performance in its stock price in 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 59% and an annual turnover of 116.2 billion yuan.
Weekly observation of the organic silicon market: Policy expectations ignite bullish sentiment, and the market remains stable and upward as pre holiday stocking comes to an end
Last week, the domestic silicone market was brewing changes in a calm manner, and the overall market showed a clear trend of stability and upward movement. Although the full range of organic silicon products represented by DMC, silicone oil, raw rubber, and 107 rubber have achieved a general price increase, the overall increase is relatively mild, rising by 50-100 yuan/ton, demonstrating the market's caution and resilience in the face of multiple factors. At present, the market is at a delicate juncture between the traditional off-season of the Spring Festival and the expected stimulus of policies. The game between supply and demand and the adjustment of industry structure jointly outline the main line of market operation in the near future.
As of January 25th, the market quotation system clearly reflects the current pattern of "bottom support and upward pressure". Among the main products, the mainstream quotation for DMC remains stable at 13800-14000 yuan/ton; The price of silicone oil remains in the range of 15500-16100 yuan/ton; The quotation for raw rubber is between 14800-15000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for 107 glue is concentrated between 14500-14900 yuan/ton. The overall price system is in a state of "emission reduction and price stability", and the support behind it first comes from the cost side.
As a key raw material, 421 # industrial silicon is currently priced at 9800-10500 yuan/ton. The southwestern region is currently in a dry season, and local industrial silicon production has been reduced due to the seasonal decrease in water and electricity supply, which has strengthened the cost support role of organic silicon products from the source. On the other hand, the active contraction of the supply side further consolidates the tight balance pattern of the market. Data shows that the overall operating rate of major domestic organic silicon production facilities has fallen to around 65%. Specifically, multiple individual production plants in East and North China have chosen to operate at reduced loads, while some facilities in Sichuan are still in the planned maintenance phase. The synchronous contraction of supply and demand on both sides has led to the continuous depletion of industry inventory, and production enterprises are focusing on executing orders before the Spring Festival, thus continuing the downward trend of inventory.
Policy expectations become a key variable, with a surge in overseas inquiries attracting attention
Recently, the most significant factor affecting market sentiment is the expected cancellation of export tax rebates for silicone products. This yet to be implemented policy signal has triggered a chain reaction in the market. The most direct manifestation is the significant advance of export orders. According to several large domestic silicone production companies, the volume of inquiries from overseas surged by over 50% year-on-year last week. Overseas customers, especially buyers in the application fields of photovoltaics, construction, silicone products, etc., are concerned about future cost increases and are actively seeking to lock in orders and prices before policy changes. This expectation of 'grabbing exports' has injected strong confidence in the domestic market to raise prices. Multiple manufacturers have stated that if this trend continues, overseas markets are expected to "explode orders ahead of schedule" before and after the Spring Festival, becoming an important force in breaking the traditional off-season rhythm.
In terms of specific manifestations of demand, it presents the characteristics of "external heat and internal temperature" and structural differentiation. The unexpectedly strong overseas demand has become a highlight. On the other hand, in the domestic market, downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises have low activity in purchasing inquiries, and overall new order transactions are still relatively flat, mainly focusing on essential procurement. This differentiation is particularly evident in the field of terminal applications: the demand for new energy (such as electric vehicles and energy storage) maintains consistent resilience and becomes a stabilizer of demand; Affected by winter temperatures, the construction industry has entered a low season for construction, and there has been a slight decline in related demand; Similarly, stimulated by the expected cancellation of export tax rebates, the "export rush" behavior of the photovoltaic industry chain has driven short-term demand growth for organic silicon materials in this field. At present, most midstream and downstream enterprises have completed or are in the stage of moderate stocking of raw materials before the Spring Festival to ensure the continuity of production after the holiday. In late January, the end of this round of stocking cycle has entered, and some enterprises have begun to observe and digest their existing inventory.