According to customs data, the export volume of primary form polysiloxane of organosilicon in China in December 2025 was 51300 tons, a month on month increase of 9.26% and a year-on-year increase of 3.85%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was 558900 tons, an increase of 2.44% compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of the main export flow, the export volume to South Korea in December was 7400 tons, ranking first, with a month on month increase of 1.29%.
Observation of Market Trends on Friday: The silicone market is stable in the short term with minor adjustments, while the long-term trend is focused on demand recovery
Recently, the domestic organic silicon market has shown slight fluctuations in stages, and the overall price trend has tended to be stable. In the past two days, mainstream individual factories have generally increased their production, with vehicles in front of enterprises in Shandong, Hubei, Zhejiang and other places maintaining high levels. However, spot price increases are still mainly concentrated in Shandong, with little increase, basically maintaining at 50-100 yuan/ton. Specifically, DMC rose by 100 yuan/ton, 107 rubber rose by 150 yuan/ton, silicone oil rose by 200 yuan/ton, and raw rubber rose by 100 yuan/ton, showing a mild upward trend in some local markets.
Although some product prices have risen, the overall trading atmosphere in the market remains stable. The export market and grassroots traders generally prioritize stability, and there has been no large-scale hoarding or selling behavior. As of January 23rd, the main prices for organic silicon products are as follows: DMC mainstream prices remain stable at 13800-14000 yuan/ton; The price of silicone oil remains in the range of 15500-16100 yuan/ton; Raw rubber is kept at 14800-15000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for 107 glue is concentrated between 14500-14900 yuan/ton, and the overall price system is still in a narrow range consolidation state.
Supply side: Low inventory support, extended order scheduling
Most of the pre-sale orders for individual factories this week have been scheduled until February. Currently, the company mainly focuses on delivering existing orders, and the inventory level is in a low state. This phenomenon has provided some support for current market prices, and some manufacturers have even experienced short-term supply shortages. The relative tightening of the supply side has enabled production enterprises to maintain a certain degree of initiative in bargaining and continue to have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand side: Procurement tends to be cautious, market transactions are scattered
Downstream customers are currently behaving rationally, with most companies either continuing to digest their own inventory or choosing opportunities for small-scale purchases. Market transactions are still concentrated in scattered small orders, lacking the driving force for large-scale centralized procurement. This cautious attitude reflects that downstream confidence in the medium to long term market is still insufficient, especially in the context of the uncertain pace of macroeconomic recovery. Most companies choose to maintain low inventory operations and replenish as needed.
Short term trend prediction: mainly stable with minor adjustments, limited upward space
Based on the current market situation, in the short term, the price of organic silicon market is expected to continue to operate steadily. The main influencing factors include supply situation, market mentality, and cost changes. Under the combined effect of these factors, the overall market trend tends to stabilize.
From the analysis of specific driving factors, the supply side has maintained a low inventory level due to the support of pre-sale order delivery, which has a certain bottoming effect on prices. In terms of market mentality, manufacturers continue to push prices, but downstream lacks sufficient confidence in the medium to long term market, and buyers and sellers enter a stage of game. On the cost side, the fluctuation of raw material prices is relatively flat, and there is no strong one-way driving force on the price of organic silicon.
The industry generally believes that although the market is expected to increase due to cost support, its upward potential will depend on the pace of recovery on the demand side. In the current situation where downstream purchasing intentions are generally weak, the significant increase in prices lacks sufficient fundamental support. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow contract orders and maintain stable operations, with slight fluctuations in some areas due to factors such as transportation and inventory.
Mid to long term outlook: Focus on the pace of demand recovery and capacity release
Looking ahead to the future trend, the price direction of the silicone market will depend more on the recovery of the demand side. If the demand for downstream industries such as construction, electronics, and textiles can steadily rebound, it will effectively drive the growth of consumption of organic silicon products, and thus promote prices to enter an upward channel. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the progress of new production capacity and changes in the export market, which will have a significant impact on market balance.
Overall, the current silicone market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance, and the possibility of significant price fluctuations is low. It is recommended that market participants closely monitor downstream industry operating rates, inventory digestion speed, and macro policy trends to grasp the subsequent market rhythm. Finding structural opportunities during a smooth transition will become the main strategy for market participation in the near future.