Yesterday, there was another surge in the raw rubber market. The spot price in Guangdong has broken through the 15000 yuan/ton mark, which is not only the highest point since New Year's Day, but also just one step away from last year's historic high of 16000 yuan/ton. At the same time, some rubber mixing enterprises have adjusted their prices, with a slight increase of 100-200 yuan in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions, while other regions remain stable. The tight supply of raw rubber is quietly easing. Downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, and some companies have begun to consciously consume inventory, with price cutting activities gradually emerging. In this delicate market situation, the market has rare confidence in the future. Where exactly is the support point?
1. Spot price climb: Guangdong's raw rubber spot price continued to rise yesterday, successfully breaking through the psychological barrier of 15000 yuan/ton. This price marks the highest level since New Year's Day this year, just one step away from last year's market high of 16000 yuan/ton. This increase is not an isolated phenomenon. Yesterday, some rubber mixing enterprises in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions simultaneously adjusted their factory prices, with an increase of 100-200 yuan/ton. The mixed rubber market in other regions remains relatively stable, with a transaction range of 13700-14300 yuan/ton. This regional difference reflects that the market is still in the stage of differentiation and adjustment, and the unified action force has not yet been fully formed.
2. Market dynamics: The current tight supply of raw rubber has eased compared to the previous period, but it has not completely disappeared. The emotions of downstream buyers tend to be rational, and "price cutting activities have become a keyword in recent transactions. Some companies have started implementing a 'continuous consumption inventory plan' and are cautious about high priced raw materials. Although there may seem to be short-term pressure in the market on the surface, the fundamentals reveal different signals. The continuous strong trend of DMC prices provides a solid foundation for the entire industry chain. More importantly, the demand for multiple terminal application areas continues to grow strongly.
3. Demand support: In key areas such as civilian silicon products, medical silicon products, electronic and electrical silicon products, and new energy vehicles, it is expected that the demand growth rate will still exceed 10% in 2026. This expectation injected medium - to long-term confidence into the market and eased concerns about short-term adjustments. More noteworthy is that the industry has received clear signals of production adjustments: major production enterprises in Xinjiang and Hubei have planned to suspend production and maintenance of their rubber production lines for 20-30 days starting from March 1, 2026. This arrangement, combined with the expectation of sustained growth in demand, effectively boosted the market's optimistic sentiment towards the future.
4. Multiple drivers: Changes in export tax rebate policies are quietly reshaping market behavior. With the gradual decline of policy dividends, the phenomenon of enterprises competing for exports has intensified. This directly stimulates the demand for raw materials such as raw rubber and mixed rubber, and drives the overall industry chain to heat up. The expected growth in demand for raw rubber in 2026 has gradually spread to the production of silicon products, forming a virtuous cycle. It is worth noting that despite the current price cutting activities in the market, the short-term raw rubber market is more likely to show a "stalemate and stability maintenance" trend against the backdrop of improved demand prospects and enhanced raw material support. Market participants generally expect that after March, with the seasonal recovery of demand and the impact of enterprise maintenance, the market is expected to warm up again and usher in a new round of upward cycle.
5. Trend judgment: This week, the market will focus on the spot market of raw rubber and the transaction status of mainstream contracts. Judging from the current situation, 'there will be no major changes, and inventory can be replenished smoothly' has become an industry consensus. For downstream enterprises, adopting a robust inventory management strategy at the current stage is more appropriate. We should neither excessively pursue high prices nor be overly pessimistic, and maintain moderate inventory levels to cope with possible price fluctuations. With the gradual implementation of the 2026 maintenance plan and the continuous growth of demand, the raw rubber market is standing at the starting point of a new cycle. Short term adjustments do not alter the positive trend in the medium to long term.
Faced with the current market differentiation, Guangdong and Jiangsu have taken the lead in responding, while other regions are still observing. The firm price of DMC and the growth in terminal demand provide solid bottom support for the market. The dual effects of maintenance plans and policy changes have laid the groundwork for the market trend next spring. As companies begin to implement inventory consumption plans and prepare for possible supply shortages, the market is seeking a new balance point between prices and demand. This balance will gradually become clear in the coming weeks.