Entering Friday, the countdown to the end of 2025 has begun, with the market maintaining a trend of exploration and the organic silicon market continuing to operate steadily and positively. Under the continuous promotion of emission reduction policies and the gradual stocking support downstream, individual factories have relatively sufficient confidence in raising prices. At the same time, based on the sustained strong cost and the improvement of year-end consumption drive, the demand in the middle and lower reaches is relatively strong compared to the previous period. However, they are relatively cautious about high priced raw materials and mainly purchase in small batches according to demand. The wait-and-see attitude of the game still exists. If the emission reduction deployment of individual factories enters a new stage after the holiday, and the demand for stocking in the middle and lower reaches is concentrated, it will give the market the confidence to achieve supply-demand rebalancing. Therefore, the current supply and demand sides are both pushing prices and playing games. As of the time of publication, DMC is stable at 13500-14000 yuan/ton, and raw rubber is reported at 14500-15000 yuan/ton; Methyl silicone oil reported at 15200-15800 yuan/ton; Overall stable with an upward trend.
On the cost side of industrial silicon: On the supply side, the production in the southwest region continues to be low, while the performance in the northern region remains stable. However, some manufacturers have accumulated inventory pressure at the end of the month and are expected to undergo maintenance. At the same time, there may be further environmental protection and production reduction actions in the northwest, jointly strengthening supply contraction. On the demand side, the supply and demand of polycrystalline silicon are deadlocked, and the transaction of organic silicon is weak, lacking substantial positive support. Industrial silicon is mainly used and purchased on demand, with limited transactions. Overall, the industrial silicon market presents a situation of oversupply, with weak fundamentals and continuous pressure on futures and spot prices. As of December 25th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2605 was 8835 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 421 # metal silicon was 9800-10200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.
The market for precipitated white carbon black: On the raw material side, sulfuric acid companies have insufficient production, limited spot supply, and downstream demand continues to be essential, causing most companies to maintain production and sales balance and prices to remain firm; In terms of soda ash, the operation of the equipment is stable, and downstream demand is flat. The demand for light alkali in the field is relatively stable, while the demand for heavy alkali has decreased. Currently, the price of light alkali is 910-1590 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy alkali is 860-1450 yuan/ton. On the other hand, the winter consumption level has risen, and downstream rubber mixing enterprises have decent shipments. Under the expectation of "double dan", the order continuity performance is good. Currently, the inventory digestion speed of rubber mixing enterprises is accelerating, and the actual purchase volume of precipitated white carbon black has also increased. In the short term, with the support of improved orders, the current price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber remains at 6300-7000 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, one market supply continues to tighten, but downstream stocking has temporarily come to an end. Currently, it is returning to essential procurement, and it is expected that first tier enterprises will mainly digest early orders in the short term. The quotation in Shandong region remains stable at 3500 yuan/ton. The cost side is operating strongly, and downstream demand is gradually stabilizing and improving. Specifically, under the year-end write off effect, downstream silicone rubber enterprises are optimistic about accepting orders. Although they maintain a strong demand for gas silicon, their actual inventory has significantly increased. At the same time, due to varying costs and prices of medium and high-quality products, gas silicon enterprises have low bidding sentiment for shipments. Under benign bidding, large, medium, and small manufacturers have accepted orders, which has contributed to the stable performance of the gas silicon market. At present, the high-end price of 200 meter gas-phase white carbon black remains at 22000-28000 yuan/ton, and the mid to low end price is at 15000-17000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the gas silicon market will continue to operate strongly under the dual support of supply and demand in the future. Overall, the current silicone market is showing a positive trend of tight supply and demand, and it is expected that the silicone market will continue to operate strongly in the short term. With the further development of the market, the integration and optimization of the industry will also accelerate, and the market concentration is expected to further increase, promoting the market to develop in a healthier and more orderly direction.