Seal the plate! From the perspective of the organic silicon market, in the first two rounds of rising prices, the industry's profits have been significantly restored. Currently, upstream monomer factories maintain a strong willingness to raise prices, and some monomer factories in Shandong have once again closed down due to optimistic orders. It is expected that they will continue to raise their prices after the New Year holiday. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises tend to purchase according to their own order situation, and the market transaction heat has weakened compared to the initial price increase, entering a relatively stable stage of digesting the increase. However, leading single factories have sufficient pre-sale orders, and the current delivery speed is slow, which has prompted some downstream enterprises to inquire from other upstream manufacturers. In the past two days, other single factories have been able to accept orders, further supporting the strong operation of organic silicon prices. In addition, according to market feedback, some individual factories of 107 glue are shipped in high and low combinations, with low inventory, further promoting the market's ability to bear high prices. In the future, if the execution ability of the joint production reduction by individual factories continues to follow up, and the downstream demand acceptance situation performs well, the combined effect of supply and demand will continue to provide support for prices, accelerating the arrival of a new round of upward trend.
In terms of platinum, on December 23rd, spot platinum prices hit a historical high of $2168.79 per ounce in the Asian market, with a cumulative increase of over 140% for the year; Domestically, spot platinum prices rose to 554 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the main futures contract 2606 was 619.95 yuan/gram, also showing strong performance. The market's upward trend is mainly driven by factors such as the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the rising demand for hedging due to geopolitical risks. In addition, global central bank purchases of gold and physical demand also provide medium - to long-term support for the precious metal market.
The strong increase in platinum prices, which doubled within the year, has directly transmitted to its downstream chemical products. Firstly, as a raw material for downstream catalysts, the price of chloroplatinic acid has significantly increased, with the tax inclusive price gradually approaching 200 yuan/gram, further exacerbating the cost pressure on enterprises. Currently, manufacturers have issued price increase letters one after another, and even partially launched a "single inquiry" sales model, aiming to transfer some costs downstream.
Secondly, this cost pressure is transmitted to silicone rubber products enterprises along the industrial chain, especially platinum vulcanizing agents and catalysts, which mainly act on the production of liquid addition silicone rubber, silicon gel and other products. The progressive cost pressure will squeeze their profit margins. And due to the irreplaceability of platinum catalysts in specific formulas, it is difficult for companies to digest costs by simply replacing materials. Therefore, the industry as a whole is facing product price increases, and some silicone companies have also issued price increase letters, raising prices by 10% on the basis of the original price!
Raw rubber market: The support of raw material costs is strong, and this week's raw rubber quotation continues to be 14500-15000 yuan/ton. Supply side: Affected by the continuous promotion of emission reduction policies for individual factories, the production of raw rubber remains low, and there is an expectation of tightening supply. In the short term, the market is in a tight equilibrium state, giving enterprises confidence to raise prices. On the demand side, with a fear of price increases, downstream demand for rubber compounds has become stronger in terms of stocking up. Coupled with terminal recovery and expectations for double dan, some stocks have moderately built warehouses. However, there is currently no strong commodity drive on the consumer side, resulting in limited acceptance of high priced raw materials by enterprises and a generally cautious pursuit of price increases. Overall, under the expectation of supply contraction, the market may maintain a stable to strong pattern, with upward potential for prices. It is expected that the raw rubber market will steadily rise in the short term, and the smooth transmission of price increases will still take time.