Last week, the overall organic silicon market remained stable, but there was a slight increase in some areas. The third price increase this year has attracted high attention from the industry, and market sentiment is becoming optimistic. As the Lunar New Year approaches, individual enterprises generally have a strong willingness to raise prices and control production, and prices in some regions of DMC and silicone oil spot markets continue to rise. The second round of emission reduction coordination meeting was held as scheduled, which further clarified the orderly promotion of emission reduction plans. It is expected that there will be a significant contraction in supply in the first quarter of 2026, which enhances the confidence of upstream manufacturers to raise prices.
From the price trend, the person in charge of a large individual production enterprise in Xinjiang stated that the current DMC quotation is about 13700 yuan/ton, which is a significant increase from the average price in October, and the inventory of the enterprise is at an extremely low level. The inventory pressure of enterprises in Zhejiang has also eased, with manufacturers raising their prices and a slight rebound in market trading atmosphere. The DMC transaction range is between 13600-13800 yuan/ton, but actual transactions still show some differentiation due to differences in customer structure and orders. Against the backdrop of the continuous promotion of the "emission reduction coordination" policy and the high concentration of production capacity among leading enterprises, market confidence has been somewhat consolidated. As of December 21st, the prices of major products have remained stable: mainstream DMC quotes are 13500-14000 yuan/ton, raw rubber is 14500-15000 yuan/ton, 107 rubber is 14000-14500 yuan/ton, and domestic methyl silicone oil is 15500-16300 yuan/ton.
Industry insiders believe that the current market appears to be in a "tight balance", but in reality it is a "weak balance". Last week, mainstream companies adopted stable price strategies to support the smooth operation of the market. As prices rise to high levels in the second half of the year, downstream procurement has shown signs of fatigue, and the stocking pace has slowed down. Channel inventory has dropped to a low level in nearly two years. The historical low level of channel inventory is not due to strong demand, but rather a safe haven operation under lack of confidence. This price increase is more of a resonance between the supply side's coordinated price support and policy expectations, rather than a real recovery on the demand side. If the terminal demand fails to keep up, the current high prices may not be sustainable, and the emission reduction story in 2026 may only be the prelude to another round of "expected management".
However, from the perspective of the annual trend, the silicone industry still faces the triple pressure of "high costs, weak demand, and overcapacity", and the market continues to face significant upward resistance. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the actual implementation of emission reduction policies, the pace of production of new production capacity, and the recovery of global terminal demand. These factors will jointly determine the direction of the organic silicon market for the whole year of 2026.