Yesterday, silicone 'platinum' hit the limit up. According to the latest market news, the main contract of platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit up yesterday, with a daily increase of 7%, marking the first time it has hit the limit up since its listing. Analysts point out that the current platinum market is not driven by short-term sentiment, and the platinum palladium market has been in a state of supply shortage and low inventory for many years. With the gradual release of demand in emerging fields such as automotive catalysts and hydrogen energy, platinum and palladium may be facing a new round of value reassessment. Platinum catalysts, as key raw materials for silicone production, may face a new round of price increases due to this impact. As the end of the year approaches, the A-share market is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions being terminated. From November 13th to December 13th, at least 20 listed companies have announced intensively the termination or cessation of major asset restructuring plans, including representative enterprises in popular industries such as chips, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and information technology.
Currently, the growth momentum of the silicone industry is shifting from "capacity expansion" to "quality improvement and structural optimization". Under this trend, the silicone market has recently shown positive changes. Due to the temporary tightening of supply caused by reduced production and maintenance by some enterprises, as well as the increased willingness of downstream procurement, the overall market transactions have been smooth and trading activity has rebounded.
As of December 15th, the prices of major products have remained stable: mainstream DMC quotes are 13500-14000 yuan/ton, raw rubber is 14500-15000 yuan/ton, 107 rubber is 14000-14500 yuan/ton, and domestic methyl silicone oil is 15500-16300 yuan/ton. At present, the market generally adopts a strategy of production based on sales, with significant growth in orders from top enterprises and a positive market atmosphere. Downstream enterprises have strong bargaining power, cautious procurement attitude, and low acceptance of quotations for scattered orders.
It is worth noting that the progress of pre-sale orders for major individual enterprises has been significantly advanced, and most manufacturers' delivery dates have been arranged before the Spring Festival. Overall, it is expected that the price of organic silicon will remain stable in the short term, with a low possibility of significant fluctuations.
Raw rubber market: After experiencing a significant increase in the early stage, the raw rubber market is currently showing a pattern of high price stabilization and strong trend. As of December 15th, the mainstream market price remains at 14500-15000 yuan/ton.
The recent market momentum mainly comes from positive changes on the supply side. Top enterprises were the first to raise their quotations, which gradually spread to spot transactions within a week, driving dealers to follow suit and overall market sentiment to recover significantly compared to the previous period. Although downstream procurement still focuses on essential needs and adopts a cautious attitude, the industry has made progress in regulating competition and addressing "internal competition", which has formed effective supply constraints from the source.
The more crucial long-term benefits come from the policy aspect. The emission reduction and production control plan for 2026 has been clearly defined, which will regulate the supply of raw rubber back to the baseline level at the beginning of the year, while allowing enterprises to flexibly arrange downtime maintenance within a certain range. This policy framework of 'controllable supply' has laid a foundation for the market to remain stable and positive in the medium to long term.
Looking ahead to the future, with supply constraints becoming the norm and downstream demand gradually recovering, the generally low inventory levels of production enterprises will become an important bargaining chip to support steady price increases. Market transactions are expected to gradually be implemented and amplified, and the willingness of major enterprises to maintain the healthy operation of the market is also relatively clear. It is expected that the price of raw rubber will remain stable and strong.
The mixed rubber market: With the upward trend of DMC prices spreading downstream in the industrial chain, the cost pressure on the mixed rubber and silicon product links has significantly increased. Dongguan mixed rubber has finally begun to rise in price. Over the past few years, Dongguan mixed rubber has been a heavy hit area in the price war. At present, the mainstream quotation for conventional hardness mixed rubber has risen to 13700-13800 yuan/ton. It is reported that the top ten rubber mixing production enterprises in major rubber mixing production areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have all planned to raise prices, with some manufacturers expected to see a maximum increase of 10%. Among them, a leading rubber mixing enterprise in Jiangsu has officially issued a price increase notice to customers, stating that a new pricing plan will be implemented from next year. The core driving force behind this price hike is the rigid increase in upstream raw material costs. It is expected that the subsequent mixed rubber market will enter a new stage of mutual game between "cost driven" and "demand driven". The industry needs to find a new dynamic equilibrium point between continuously rising production costs and downstream market price acceptance. Whether the cost can be smoothly transmitted to the terminal will become a key factor affecting the profitability and market stability of each link in the industrial chain.