Entering Wednesday, the trading atmosphere in the silicone market continues to heat up. Local DMC in East China rose 700! Reported at 14000 yuan/ton, the DMC of Shandong monomer factory rose by 100 yuan, and the price was raised to 13200 yuan/ton. The overall mainstream quotation was raised to 13200-14000 yuan/ton, providing strong support for the market. The current market has formed a strong consensus on the deepening of subsequent emission reduction policies and price increases. The virtuous cycle of "upstream emission reduction driving up - active transactions in the middle and lower reaches" has gradually taken shape, and market confidence continues to be boosted. It is worth noting that an industry conference will be held tomorrow, which is expected to further clarify the implementation rules for emission reduction and the price coordination mechanism of the industrial chain, and is expected to strengthen the market's bullish expectations. Looking ahead to the future, the market quotation system is gradually stabilizing, and it is expected that DMC prices will continue to break through in the short term, opening a new round of value return market. The overall trend is dominated by strong upward momentum.
Raw rubber market: This week, the raw rubber market continued its stable upward trend. Local raw rubber prices in East China have risen by 800! The quoted price is 15000 yuan/ton, with mainstream prices ranging from 14000-15000 yuan/ton. On the cost side, due to the stable increase in DMC prices, the production cost of raw rubber continues to rise, and the cost support logic continues to strengthen, providing the core driving force for price increases. On the supply side, affected by the 30% emission reduction policy, the production capacity of rubber plants will generally decrease in the future, and some enterprises' production lines will shrink. The market presents a dual low pattern of "low load+low inventory", and individual factories currently have no obvious pressure to reduce inventory, with sufficient motivation to raise prices. On the demand side: On the one hand, the basic quantity of three cars for A-class customers of leading factories needs to be completed; On the other hand, according to our understanding, some mixed rubber compounds have placed more orders for low-priced raw rubber in the early stage. With the increase of over 2000, they need to be shipped in a high-low combination in the near future; Therefore, in the short term, high priced transactions of raw rubber are expected to be partially implemented. If emissions reduction and price increase can continue to drive, the procurement strategies of various enterprises may shift from "buy as you go" to phased replenishment. At present, the price difference of raw rubber among various factories has narrowed, and the phenomenon of orders being concentrated in top enterprises has also eased. It is expected that in the short term, the raw rubber market will still have upward potential in price, supported by sustained emissions reduction and low inventory levels.
High temperature silicone rubber market: This week, the mixed rubber market followed the stable upward trend of raw materials, with mainstream prices ranging from 13200 to 13800 yuan/ton. From the on-site perspective, the pressure on the inventory of mixed rubber in the early stage has significantly eased, coupled with the strong price of raw rubber forming cost support, and the strong willingness of mixed rubber enterprises to raise prices. On the supply side, in terms of products, the production capacity of solid rubber compound and liquid silicone gel remains stable, while the production of rubber compound by leading monomer factories is gradually decreasing, freeing up shipping space for mainstream rubber compound factories in the market; Supported by the high price of raw rubber, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Overall, under the resonance of cost transmission and demand, the trading center of the mixed rubber market continues to rise, and some companies have placed orders until the end of the month. In the short term, the increase may slow down due to the pace of demand and inventory at the beginning of the month. However, with the gradual consumption of low-priced inventory and the support of the rise in raw rubber prices, there is still room for upward prices in the future, and the overall trend is relatively strong. In terms of silicon products, downstream silicon product enterprises have become more enthusiastic about purchasing, presenting a dual driving force of "essential needs+stocking": on the one hand, the export orders of terminal products have increased, and traditional fields such as silicone kitchenware and adult products have benefited from the preheating of foreign holidays, resulting in a rebound in export orders; On the other hand, in response to the risk of price increases after December, enterprises have increased their stocking efforts, resulting in a rebound in market demand. Overall, industry players have sufficient confidence in the future market, but due to the slow pace of orders at the beginning of the month, short-term purchases still tend to be rational. Overall, the silicone market is in a critical upward cycle driven by policies and resonating with supply and demand, presenting the core characteristics of "policy adjustment, price recovery, confidence restoration, and coordinated recovery of the industrial chain". From upstream raw materials to downstream terminals, the rebound in various links is gradually taking shape, and the market is entering a new stage of active price promotion and rational stocking from a wait-and-see state in the early stage.