At present, the organic silicon industry is shifting from homogeneous competition to high-quality development, in order to promote value return under the "anti involution" policy. On the supply side, the emission reduction layout led by individual factories is strictly controlling production capacity, and the supply of raw materials is gradually shrinking. In terms of demand, the "15th Five Year Plan" proposes to vigorously boost consumption, expand effective investment, and resolutely eliminate obstacles to the construction of a unified national market. In order to support the continuous promotion of "anti involution", the country continues to introduce favorable policies in high-end fields such as new energy, electronics, and healthcare, gradually increasing the demand for organic silicon materials from these enterprises and forming a strong growth point.
Yesterday, the silicone adhesive market ushered in a new round of price increases. Several silicone adhesive companies have successively issued price increase letters, announcing price increases for their products, with product price increases ranging from 5% to 20%. This round of price increases is mainly driven by a significant increase in raw materials, and companies are adjusting prices to maintain a reasonable profit margin. This change is expected to gradually push the upward trend from top to bottom, which will have a positive impact on the silicone market.
From the current signals, the expectation of the organic silicon industry chain is shifting from a "pessimistic repair" to a "positive resonance": the price increase of individual factories has started the prelude to recovery, and the downstream room temperature and high-temperature adhesives have seen their gains fall. If the emission reduction effect continues to be realized in December, the organic silicon industry chain may break free from the previous "disorderly low price competition" dilemma and promote a positive cycle upstream and downstream.
On the cost side: In terms of supply, due to the impact of the dry season, production in the southwest region continues to shrink, driving market sentiment towards rising prices. However, the production capacity of large factories in the northwest region is relatively high, and the overall supply level presents a situation of low in the south and high in the north, resulting in some differentiation in spot prices; In terms of demand, under the call for "anti involution" and carbon reduction, downstream polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon enterprises have large-scale maintenance layouts, with limited demand for industrial silicon.
As of November 20th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2601 was 9705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; The spot price of 421 # metallic silicon has slightly increased to 9900-10200 yuan/ton, with some rising by 100 yuan. In the short term, the fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are currently showing a weak supply-demand situation, with limited upward driving force. The overall trend is mainly stable, which provides support for DMC prices.
The market for precipitated white carbon black: On the raw material side, sulfuric acid companies have maintained a low level of operation, with tight supply and stable downstream demand, resulting in sustained high sulfuric acid prices; In terms of soda ash, some units have reduced their load, but the demand is still average. Manufacturers still focus on issuing preliminary orders. Currently, the quotation for light alkali and heavy alkali is 930-1620 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, downstream rubber mixing enterprises are currently driven by the upward trend and have gradually completed their monthly regular stocking volume. Under the condition of producing on a per order basis, the consumption rate of precipitated white carbon black has increased, and urgent stocking is being followed up.
In summary, with the strengthening of both supply and demand, the overall market for precipitated white carbon black shows a stable and positive trend. Currently, the market price for precipitated white carbon black used in silicone rubber is 6300-6700 yuan/ton. With the continuous driving force of downstream demand, the market transaction situation will continue to improve, which may have a certain upward effect on the precipitation of white carbon black.