The whole line is waiting to rise! Is the reversal of the organic silicon market approaching? At present, the industry conference is underway, and several individual factories were closed yesterday. Today, based on the agreed results of the conference, a new round of quotations will be restarted, with a high probability of an increase. The specific increase will be disclosed after the conference ends. Specifically, although it remains to be tested whether the price increase can be smoothly digested by downstream and terminal consumers in the weak terminal consumer market, the repeated emphasis on "anti internal competition" at the macro level is aimed at the disorderly competition of enterprises at low prices. Upstream silicone monomer factories must also respond to the call. In addition, under long-term loss pressure, in the fourth quarter, in order to repair profits, monomer factories returned to consistent price increases. Most midstream and downstream enterprises also hope that the upward momentum will continue, which is not only conducive to shipments, but also improves profits. As far as we know, some individual factories have adjusted their quotations yesterday, DMC、 The price of raw rubber has increased by 500-800. Overall, individual factories held a tight selling trend yesterday, and today's uptrend is about to erupt! Is DMC rising sharply to 12000, or is it a steady stream of 200 and 300, with a small to medium increase? How to restore stocking confidence in the middle and lower reaches depends on the consistent pricing efforts of individual upstream factories. Therefore, we not only need to pay attention to price trends, but also need to see the upstream's determination to reduce production, as well as macro policies to promote "anti involution". In short, organosilicon has reached a key point in the fourth quarter market. How much do you think DMC will rise to?
Raw rubber market: Individual factories have released rebound signals, and leading factories are waiting for a rise in raw rubber prices. Yesterday, some individual factories' quotes for raw rubber have risen to 12500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price has increased by 700 yuan. Supply side: The operating rate of raw rubber enterprises remains stable, and some pre maintenance equipment is gradually resuming production, resulting in an overall increase in supply compared to the previous period. Due to the convening of the meeting or the introduction of new production reduction plans, various enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, which provides certain support for prices. On the demand side: Downstream rubber mixing enterprises still mainly rely on rigid demand for procurement, and currently have limited acceptance of high priced raw rubber. Due to the closure of leading manufacturers, some rubber mixing enterprises are afraid of rising prices. Even if they have some resistance to high priced inventory, some enterprises with low inventory actively seek low-priced market sources to maintain production and avoid the risk of subsequent cost increases. It is worth noting that the orders for raw rubber from leading factories can be scheduled until the end of the month. Due to the reduction in self use, the sales volume of raw rubber will increase, while also bearing more profit pressure. We actively participated in this meeting, and the increase in prices is a high probability event. Whether the increase can be implemented in the future depends on the operating rate of the raw rubber equipment.
The mixed rubber market: The price of raw rubber has shown an increase, and the cost pressure in the mixed rubber market has intensified. Currently, the mainstream quotation for mixed rubber remains in the range of 11500-12000 yuan/ton. Supply side: The operating rate of rubber mixing enterprises remains stable, but due to limited downstream order growth, various rubber mixing factories are still competing at low prices. Therefore, when the price of raw rubber rises, it follows the call for an increase, while at the same time, it can only accept orders at low prices; However, the leading factory has reduced the amount of mixed rubber, and some orders have flowed to other mixed rubber factories. As far as we know, some large mixed rubber factories have recently received considerable orders and their sales have continued to grow. In terms of demand, there are occasional highlights in the end consumer market, but they cannot drive overall market demand. Downstream product companies tend to purchase rubber compounds on demand and have a lower willingness to stock up. Especially for some small and medium-sized silicon product enterprises, procurement is restricted due to financial pressure and order uncertainty. At the same time, the fourth quarter is an important collection season for rubber compound factories. For some customers with poor payment terms, the rubber compound factories are also cautious in accepting orders and increasing their collection efforts. In the short term, the support for the cost side of mixed rubber is strengthened, but there is still a lack of substantial improvement in the demand side. It is expected that there will be insufficient momentum to keep up with the rise, and the market will still focus on digesting inventory, with relatively limited price fluctuations.