Entering Friday, the current organic silicon market is showing a weak supply-demand pattern, with DMC quotations remaining at 11200-12000 yuan/ton. From the on-site perspective, due to the support of pre-sale orders in the early stage and the widespread losses in the industry, there is a strong willingness to repair profits at the end of the year, which has formed a certain bottom support for DMC prices. The room for individual factories to negotiate is limited. Pay close attention to next week's industry conference, or there is a possibility of stabilizing and exploring an upward trend.
At present, some maintenance equipment has been restored and restarted. After the recent basic stocking in the middle and lower reaches, the mentality of adding additional inventory is generally average, and more emphasis is still on buying at low prices. Whether the exploration of price increases can be implemented into actual transactions still needs to be a competition between the two sides.
Xingfa Group recently stated that the current organic silicon market is facing phased market competition pressure due to industry supply factors. Considering that there is currently no new production capacity in the industry in the next two years, the sales price of organic silicon products is expected to gradually move out of the bottom range next year. The company relies on its integrated cost advantage and high value-added product lineup to flexibly adjust the production and sales pace and maximize the profitability of organic silicon.
Cost aspect: On the supply side, due to seasonal contraction, the growth rate of production in the north has slowed down, while in the Sichuan Yunnan region, the number of shutdowns has rapidly increased due to the approaching dry season, leading to an overall decrease in supply. On the demand side, the expected production of polycrystalline silicon has been lowered, while the maintenance of organic silicon has reduced production. The overall demand release is expected to be weak. However, recently, warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and some downstream companies are conducting dry season replenishment, which has eased some inventory pressure. As of November 6th, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2601 was 9065 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 105 yuan; The quotation for 421 # metal silicon continues at 9800-10200 yuan/ton.
In the future, the industrial silicon market as a whole presents a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight excess of inventory. The market improvement is limited, and it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The upward space is limited by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand, and macro policy changes need to be closely monitored in the future.
The market for precipitated white carbon black: On the raw material side, the supply of sulfuric acid market is becoming tight, coupled with high costs, which provides strong support for acid companies. Currently, prices continue to operate strongly; In terms of soda ash, due to weak support from the demand side, transactions are still dominated by low-priced sources. At the beginning of the month, the price of soda ash did not change much, with light alkali and heavy alkali quoted at 930-1480 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, due to the impact of the off-season in the terminal market, the downstream mixed rubber market has weak demand, resulting in flat orders for enterprises, low enthusiasm for purchasing white carbon black, and a quiet market trading atmosphere.
Overall, under the interplay between cost support and sluggish demand, the market for precipitated white carbon black lacks strong dominant factors. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable and stable operating trend in the short term, with little significant volatility.