DMC is rising again! The organic silicon market has bottomed out and stabilized, and price transmission and upstream and downstream games have become key factors in the future market. After more than three years of deep adjustment, the organic silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, and its core product DMC has entered a period of "more rising and less falling" oscillation and bottoming out. This round of price rebound is not an isolated event, but a result driven by the impact of achieving annual loss reduction and turnaround, as well as upstream cost support. Its subsequent trend will highly depend on the ability of prices to smoothly transmit to end-users. The industry believes that the rise of DMC in the fourth quarter may become mainstream.
From an upstream perspective, the primary task of mainstream individual factories is to deliver low-priced pre-sale orders in the early stage, which provides short-term support for prices. At the same time, under the annual operating pressure, production enterprises have a strong willingness to "stabilize prices" and even "raise prices". Yesterday, DMC quotations showed a differentiated situation of "six increases and four decreases". Although the increase (50-100 yuan/ton) was slightly smaller than the decrease (100 yuan/ton), the range of increase was wider, indicating that mainstream manufacturers' pricing confidence is recovering. The wide fluctuation of the transaction price around 11500 yuan/ton precisely reflects that the market is in a game and rebalancing process between old and new prices.
Price forecast: In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Due to the current low prices, the sustainability of downstream willingness to receive goods will be crucial. If new orders can steadily follow up, DMC prices are expected to solidify their foundation at the current position and accumulate a slight upward momentum.
The medium-term trend depends on broader upstream and downstream linkage. If the prices of raw materials such as silicon metal and methyl chloride remain firm, it will squeeze profits from the cost side and force DMC prices to passively rise. More importantly, whether demand can shift from expectations to substantial volume growth - that is, orders for silicone oil, sealants, resins, silicone products and other products in the terminal field must be able to effectively digest the price increase of DMC, forming a virtuous transmission chain of "raw material price increase → intermediate price increase → terminal product price increase". If downstream acceptance is insufficient, this round of price increases will be difficult to sustain, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.
Conclusion: The silicone market is currently at a critical turning point. The moderate increase in prices is a positive signal, but its sustainability is facing dual tests from upstream and downstream. Market participants need to closely monitor the order dynamics of downstream segmented fields and the pricing strategies of leading enterprises to grasp the direction of the next stage of the market.