On September 23rd, as the overseas Christmas season approaches, several silicone product companies in Guangdong have fully entered the peak production and sales season, and their production workshops and logistics systems have simultaneously launched a "sprint mode". To ensure timely delivery of orders, many silicone companies have adjusted their production lines from a "single shift system" to a "two shift system", and the production rhythm of overtime work is expected to continue until the end of this month.
Among numerous Christmas themed silicone products, baking molds, Christmas themed ice cubes, placemats, cup covers, candy molds, and other holiday merchandise still dominate orders. It is worth noting that the demand for silicone products in overseas markets has shown a clear upgrading trend this year - Christmas products that were previously characterized by low prices and high volume are gradually shifting towards the mid to high end direction. In the orders received by enterprises, the proportion of environmentally friendly products made of food grade platinum silicone has significantly increased. These products are not only heat-resistant and odorless, but also have the characteristics of softness, durability, and easy demolding, especially favored by the European and American markets.
In addition, the order volume of innovative products such as silicone Christmas ornaments, LED silicone lighting fixtures, and multi-purpose silicone gift boxes, which are exquisitely designed, practical, and decorative, is also rapidly increasing. Many companies have expressed that customers' requirements for product material safety, design creativity, and environmental certification have significantly increased, driving them to continuously optimize production processes and product structures to meet the new demand for high-quality Christmas silicone products in the international market.
On Monday, the trading activity in the domestic organic silicon market significantly increased, with the main product DMC rebounding by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price reaching 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The biggest highlight of the market lies in the fluctuation of raw rubber prices: affected by a sudden accident at a large raw rubber factory in Zhejiang, raw rubber surged by 200 yuan/ton in a single day, and the mainstream spot price quickly rose to the range of 12500-13000 yuan/ton, becoming the strongest variety in the industry chain on that day.
The current organic silicon industry chain is showing a structural trend: 1 Strong rise in raw rubber: sudden contraction on the supply side coupled with cost support, strong reluctance among holders to sell, and almost disappearance of low-priced sources of goods; 2. Narrow range oscillation of mixed rubber: The mainstream price of precipitated rubber is 12500-13500 yuan/ton, while that of gas-phase rubber is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, with relatively limited increase in price; 3. Regional price difference widening: Northwest production areas such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are constrained by tight transportation capacity, and regional negotiated prices continue to rise, widening the price difference between the east and west.
Triple pressure resonance on the supply side: Sudden supply contraction: The accident at a major rubber factory in Zhejiang resulted in a sudden tightening of regional production capacity, leading to an expected widening supply gap in the market; The transportation bottleneck has intensified: the vehicle scheduling in the main production areas of the north is tight, and the efficiency of raw material and finished product circulation has decreased; Manufacturer control strategy: Many local rubber production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and some have experienced a phenomenon of holding up stocks and waiting for price increases. The wait-and-see sentiment on the demand side has slowed down: Although downstream inquiry activity has increased, as prices rise, both supply and demand sides tend to operate cautiously, and the actual pace of transaction follow-up remains to be observed.
In the short term, the raw rubber market is still supported by the supply led logic, and it is expected that prices will remain firm. Focus on: 1 The actual impact of the resumption of production progress of Zhejiang accident enterprises on the supply gap; two Does the cost transmission capability of downstream rubber mixing enterprises match the pace of price increases; three The regulatory effect of alleviating transportation bottlenecks in the northwest region on regional price differences. The market is currently in a game stage between strong expectations and weak reality. If the supply side contradiction continues to ferment, there is still room for the price of raw rubber to rise, but we need to be wary of the risk of high prices rebounding demand. (Note: Market analysis is based on public market information, and specific operational recommendations need to be combined with the actual procurement/sales strategies of the enterprise)
The strongest typhoon "Huajiasha" this year is approaching southern China. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, it is expected that "Huajiasha" will land in the area from Huizhou, Guangdong to Wenchang, Hainan from early morning to afternoon on September 24th, and is most likely to land along the coast near Yangjiang City, Guangdong Province. The strongest impact period will be from September 23rd to 25th. According to the "Dongguan Release" on the afternoon of the 22nd, the super typhoon "Huajiasha" is coming rapidly. The city's three defense command center has decided to implement the "five suspensions" (suspension of classes, suspension of work, suspension of production, suspension of operation, suspension of operation) measures in batches throughout the city from 15:00 on September 22nd. It is reported that due to the impact of the typhoon, all silicone factories in Dongguan will be shut down.