Entering Friday, the organic silicon market experienced frequent fluctuations, leading to a differentiation in the shipping mentality of enterprises. It is reported that in the past two days, another facility in East China has experienced a sudden leakage accident, causing partial shutdown and further reducing overall production capacity, easing the pressure on DMC supply side, and to some extent supporting the firm quotation of individual factories. At present, the DMC quotation is 10800-11200 yuan/ton, with a local increase of 100 yuan. The market transaction price has also slightly risen to 10800-11000 yuan/ton, further stimulating midstream and downstream enterprises to stock up. However, the trend of weakening market fundamentals has not changed. Under profit pressure, middle and downstream enterprises generally hold a cautious attitude towards chasing price increases, and procurement is still mainly based on essential needs.
Overall, due to the slow recovery of terminal demand and the mismatch between supply and demand, the impact of local supply reduction on the market is limited. Moreover, midstream and downstream enterprises have low expectations for the future market and tend to enter the market at low prices, while individual factories insist on stabilizing prices and even accumulate momentum to explore price increases, resulting in differences between upstream and downstream in game negotiations, making it difficult to quickly reach deals. It is expected that the DMC market will continue its stable upward trend in the short term, with demand dragging down the market, and there is still a risk of bidding and profit sharing in the future.
Cost aspect: On the raw material side, silicon plants in the northwest region continue to increase in production, while the southwest region also maintains a high load under the acceleration of early production resumption, resulting in an overall increase in supply. On the demand side, downstream polycrystalline silicon inventory pressure still exists, and in order to avoid excess risks, the purchase volume of industrial silicon has been reduced; In terms of organic silicon, recent orders have been poor, coupled with some equipment accidents, resulting in average demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the current "anti involution" policy is expected to cause frequent disturbances, leading to a sustained slight rebound in futures and spot prices. However, the marginal improvement is limited, and the situation of industrial silicon supply exceeding demand has intensified. Yesterday, the main futures contract prices fell slightly, and it is expected that the subsequent market will mainly be characterized by broad fluctuations.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the acid plant has resumed production after early maintenance, but there is no obvious positive news in the downstream market, and transactions are average. Currently, the sulfuric acid market price continues to be weak; In terms of soda ash, there is not much change in supply and demand on site, and the relationship tends to ease, supporting the stable operation of soda ash prices. This week, the prices of light alkali and heavy alkali are quoted at 1000-1500 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the end consumer market continues to be weak, with average shipments from downstream silicone rubber companies, slow consumption of raw materials, and increasingly limited procurement of precipitated white carbon black, resulting in few transactions. Overall, with a flat supply and demand situation, the fluctuation of the precipitated white carbon black market is limited. Currently, the quotation for precipitated white carbon black used in silicone rubber continues to be between 6200-6800 yuan/ton, and the market remains weakly stable.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, due to good feedback from orders, the price of methyl trichlorosilane continued to rise sharply on Monday, with a price increase of 250 to 1800 yuan/ton in Shandong region, providing strong support for gas silicon. On the other hand, there is currently no sign of recovery in the terminal market, and downstream enterprises are generally observing the rebound of raw materials, mainly digesting inventory, and continuing to purchase gas silicon for essential needs. Overall, the cost of silicon dioxide has increased, but shipments are limited. The main focus is on supplying to core customers, with stable production and no price adjustments for the time being. The high-end quotation for 200% surface gas-phase white carbon black is 22000-28000 yuan/ton, and the low-end quotation is 14000-16000 yuan/ton. In the short term, gas-phase white carbon black continues to operate weakly and steadily, and some companies still have intense bidding.
Overall, currently, the price of silicon metal is showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the supply from individual factories has also decreased, which has a certain stimulating effect on downstream markets. However, macro positive factors are relatively limited, and the terminal market remains weak, leading to a generally wait-and-see attitude among middle and downstream enterprises, with low stocking enthusiasm. Currently, they mainly focus on digesting their own inventory and stocking up at low prices based on their own order situation and inventory level. In the future, due to the continuous long short game in the current organic silicon market, companies remain cautious in terms of transactions. If downstream companies release warehouse building demand at the end of the month, it may trigger a new round of market trends.