At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The stock of social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. In the first 8 months, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.66 trillion yuan year-on-year; The issuance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 485.1 billion yuan. Industry insiders believe that on September 18th, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision and summary of economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. There is a high probability of a rate cut in September, but what is more crucial is the attitude towards subsequent rate cuts. At present, the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continues to narrow to 2.8%, reaching the lowest value since June 2021, indicating that more funds are being converted into demand deposits, which is conducive to economic activities such as consumption and investment. Subsequent macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability, with a moderately loose monetary policy still providing strong support for the real economy. Fiscal policy will also actively promote further economic recovery and improvement.
Last week, the supply and demand of the domestic silicone market were weak, showing an overall consolidation trend. The price of raw material silicon metal continues to operate weakly, with insufficient cost support. In terms of supply, some individual factory units have entered maintenance, but the impact on the overall market supply is limited, and the mentality of manufacturers to explore price increases has become differentiated. The performance of the pre-sale market varies: some manufacturers with abundant pre-sale orders have tentatively raised their prices, and the focus of negotiations has increased by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; However, enterprises with insufficient order support still prioritize stable price shipments and actively accept orders to alleviate inventory pressure.
From the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in the terminal market, and midstream and downstream enterprises still face difficulties in destocking. Most enterprises maintain an on-demand procurement strategy, with a low willingness to stock up, and generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. In terms of production, enterprises closely monitor upstream price dynamics while scheduling orders, and their overall purchasing mentality is relatively conservative.
In terms of price, there is a trend of differentiation: the mainstream quotation for DMC is between 10700-12300 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are mostly concentrated at the lower limit of the range; The core customer transaction price of 107 glue is 11500-11900 yuan/ton, and the price for large rubber producers is 11700-12300 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation in the silicone oil market is 13500-14000 yuan/ton, and there is generally a margin of 200-300 yuan/ton for imported goods. It is worth noting that some individual enterprises have tentatively raised their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton due to the improvement of pre-sale orders, but there has not been a widespread increase, and most manufacturers still focus on stable price shipments.
On the news front, there were reports of the industry's "anti internal competition" policy within the week, which triggered short-term market fluctuations and caused some companies to make abnormal offers. However, it was later falsified and market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. Although some major manufacturers have seen a rebound in pre-sale orders, the industry generally believes that there is limited room for further improvement, and it is expected that the order volume will likely decline in the fourth quarter.
At present, we have entered the traditional peak season of "golden September and silver October" demand, but the overall market performance this year is flat, and the demand for organic silicon is still at a low level during the off-season. The demand side continues to be weak, and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has not brought significant boost. Mid to downstream enterprises still focus on essential needs for procurement, with low willingness to hoard goods and a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Although a seasonal rebound can still be expected, due to the high base in the second half of last year, it is expected to show a flat or slightly declining trend year-on-year this year, and confidence in the future still needs to be further boosted.
A huge loss of 40%! Silicone adhesive companies enter the knockout stage! In June 2022, Ningbo Chenghong Real Estate won a residential land for 3.03 billion yuan, with a transaction floor price of approximately 13268 yuan/square meter. However, in June 2025, three years later, the land was acquired and stored by the government for 1.817 billion yuan - equivalent to a net loss of 1.2 billion yuan, a drop of up to 40%! This case reflects the cruel reality that many real estate companies are facing: the land acquired at high prices in the early stage is depreciating significantly, seriously eroding their profits, and even directly threatening their survival. From a deeper market logic perspective, the possibility of a fundamental reversal in the supply and demand relationship of real estate in the past five years is extremely low. The industry continues to be under pressure and is gradually entering the stage of clearing and restructuring.
As a key application area of silicone adhesive products, the shrinkage and adjustment of real estate will inevitably be transmitted downstream. Silicone rubber companies are also unable to stay out of the situation and have to face a reality: customers are decreasing, orders are shrinking, and the silicone rubber industry has shifted from a "growth competition" to an "elimination competition". Sources have revealed that a major silicone rubber factory in Shandong plans to close at the end of the month. Only silicone adhesive companies with brand products, cost, and customer advantages can stand firm in this reshuffle in the future.
Dynamic analysis of individual units: Last week, three major factories in Shandong and Zhejiang began load reduction maintenance, resulting in local supply tightening. At present, most other factories are still maintaining high load production, and the overall operating rate of the industry has not significantly decreased. But if the subsequent product prices remain low and the company's profits do not improve, some manufacturers with high inventory or high cost pressure may choose to reduce production or even stop production. It is expected that the industry's operating rate may gradually decline to around 70% this week, and the supply side may enter a stage of adjustment.
DMC market dynamic analysis: Last week, the overall price of DMC in the domestic market remained stable, with mainstream brand market prices fluctuating by 100 yuan/ton, reported at 10700-12300 yuan/ton.
107 Rubber Market Dynamic Analysis: Last week, the mainstream quotations were concentrated in the range of 12300-12700 yuan/ton, and traders continued to offer discounts for shipments. Market transactions were very weak, and terminal demand was average; At the beginning of the week, 107 rubber manufacturers lowered their factory prices, but the traders' mentality was average, and the prices gradually decreased. Last week, the price drop was around 50-100 yuan/ton; On the supply side, last week's production increased and industry supply increased, but there was no significant improvement in terminal demand, and the pattern of oversupply remained evident, with prices fluctuating and falling.
Dynamic analysis of silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market showed a trend of differentiation, with mainstream brand prices fluctuating slightly, with a magnitude of about 100 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation for domestically produced methyl silicone oil is concentrated at 13500-14000 yuan/ton, while the price of imported brand silicone oil remains in the range of 17500-18500 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign products continues to exist, reflecting the competitive advantage of imported products in some high-end application fields.
From the perspective of market structure, although we are currently in the traditional downstream consumption peak season, the strength of demand recovery is still insufficient, and the "weak reality" pattern has not yet been reversed. The slow resumption of work by downstream enterprises and limited new orders have to some extent suppressed the consumption momentum of silicone oil. However, the expectation of peak season still provides psychological support to the market, limiting the downward space for prices.
It is worth noting that the supply of cracking material silicone oil has slightly increased due to the contraction of supply, and the price excluding tax in South China is about 13000-13300 yuan/ton, reflecting the current situation of tight supply in the cracking material market. This phenomenon is related to the tightening of environmental policies and the stability of raw material supply. The clearance of some small and medium-sized cracking production capacity has led to changes in the market supply structure.
Overall, the current silicone oil market is in a game stage of "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The narrowing of short-term price fluctuations reflects a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The progress of demand recovery in downstream industries such as textile auxiliaries, daily chemical products, and silicone rubber, as well as the price trend of upstream raw materials such as metal silicon and DMC, will become key factors affecting the subsequent market price of silicone oil. It is expected that the price of silicone oil will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern until there is no obvious positive driving force in the market.
Dynamic analysis of the raw rubber market: Last week, the domestic raw rubber market showed a trend of price increase, with mainstream brand market quotations generally rising by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price range climbing to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. From a fundamental perspective, the current raw rubber market presents a pattern of "dual increase in supply and demand". In terms of supply, with the completion of maintenance on some raw rubber equipment in the early stage, the overall operating rate of the industry has rebounded, and the supply volume has increased month on month; On the demand side, there is a trend of stable domestic demand and increased external demand, especially with the continuous increase in foreign trade export orders. In addition, some new rubber mixing production capacity has been gradually put into operation, which further supports the procurement demand for raw rubber materials.
At present, the main rubber production enterprises have abundant pre-sale orders, and the market's bullish sentiment is gradually increasing. Approaching last weekend, influenced by rumors of industry policy expectations, market inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased, spot prices have generally risen, and transactions are mainly based on fixed prices, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for short-term price trends.
From an industry perspective, raw rubber, as a key raw material in the silicone rubber industry chain, often experiences price fluctuations due to the combined effects of downstream demand for silicone products and changes in upstream raw material costs. The resilience of the current export market and the expansion of domestic mixed rubber production capacity have provided sustained support for the demand for raw rubber. It is expected that short-term prices will continue to operate strongly, and it is necessary to closely monitor macro policy trends and downstream actual carrying capacity.