Since August, the stock prices of several listed companies in the field of organic silicon have experienced a strong and sustained upward trend. Yesterday, the stock price of 600141 Xingfa surged by 4.44%. Market analysis generally points out that the initiation and driving force of this round of market trend is not from individual investors, but from the institutional fund layout dominated by clear industry trends and improved performance expectations. From the start of the market to the gradual acceleration, the core driving force has always revolved around the positive changes in the fundamentals of the silicone industry, including the optimization of supply and demand patterns, downstream application expansion, and substantial improvement in corporate profitability, reflecting the deepening market recognition of the industry's high prosperity cycle.
On Monday, the domestic silicone market showed a trend of differentiation, with mainstream product DMC prices temporarily stable, with a reference range of 10800-12300 yuan/ton, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. However, the prices of raw rubber and mixed rubber have significantly decreased, especially in the raw rubber market where there has been a noticeable loosening. Currently, the transaction prices of core large producers of raw rubber have fallen to 11500-11800 yuan/ton. Some large producers of mixed rubber have taken advantage of this opportunity to purchase at a lower price, while small and medium-sized manufacturers have followed suit with their urgent needs. Stockholders are cautious in their operations and still focus on bulk negotiations, seeking lower prices to enter the market. The mixed rubber market quotation is relatively chaotic, with a general decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation gradually drops to around 12000 yuan/ton, expanding the market's actual order negotiation space. On the news front, there are rumors in the market today that the organic silicon industry will hold a "anti involution" work seminar in Lanzhou, organized by relevant associations, aimed at discussing the healthy development of the industry and self regulatory mechanisms, and attracting widespread market attention. Some industry players expect the conference to bring positive signals or provide some support for market sentiment in the later stage.
As the end of this week approaches, major companies have entered a new pricing cycle, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment is gradually increasing. The overall trading pace is stable, and operators are generally cautious in their operations. In terms of supply, some mainstream manufacturers continue the "price for quantity" strategy, with tight spot circulation. Most companies focus on executing core customer orders, with limited new order volume. In terms of specific pricing, the mainstream price range for DMC is 10800-12300 yuan/ton, the transaction price for 107 glue has fallen back by more than 12000 yuan/ton, the mainstream price for raw glue is 13000-13500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for silicone oil is 13700-14200 yuan/ton.
The demand side is still weak, and downstream enterprises have limited new purchase orders. Although some enterprises have a certain amount of inventory, due to the slow recovery of terminal consumption and the low speed of inventory turnover, the current focus is still on replenishment for essential needs, and there is no intention of large-scale procurement. The overall market presents a weak balance between supply and demand.
Overall, the current silicone market is still in a supply-demand game stage. Although the supply side maintains a high level of operation, the "price for quantity" strategy continues to pressure weak demand, and the bottom support of prices is gradually increasing. In addition, the current phenomenon of cost inversion in the industry is still severe, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices. The market generally has a bullish expectation for a stable future. Expected to enter September, the organic silicon market is expected to gradually bottom out and slightly recover, with DMC and raw rubber prices tentatively increasing by 200-400 yuan/ton.