Unfortunate start! Industrial silicon drops another 200! How long can DMC last? A giant dissolves its joint venture company!
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Quite a price! Entering August officially, the organic silicon market maintains a temporarily stable trend, with upstream and downstream transactions deadlocked in the game. At present, individual factories have resumed offering, with DMC prices ranging from 12300 to 12500 yuan/ton. Supported by pre-sale orders, prices remain stable, and the operating rate has also increased synchronously. In terms of demand, although the mid to lower reaches of July increased their stocking levels due to the rebound in prices, the large-scale stocking action was delayed due to weak terminal demand, and still focused on essential needs. In addition, the current DMC seems to be stable and ready to fall, and the wait-and-see sentiment of middle and downstream enterprises is intensifying. At present, the supply pressure in the silicone market has increased, and the shipping mentality of individual factories will also face differentiation. On the one hand, we need to be wary of the downstream resistance to enterprises caused by price hikes, which may lead to the loss of orders to competitors; On the other hand, as prices are still fluctuating at the bottom, the "Golden September and Silver October" may not have high expectations, but it is also an important node in the industry for the second half of the year. Once the annual loss is further reduced, the pace of how to make concessions also needs to be grasped. At present, the performance of terminal demand is slow and unable to provide price support for individual factories. Some individual factories with high shipping pressure can only accelerate the pace of destocking to receive orders in advance.
On the cost side: There are reports of factories resuming production in the northwest region, coupled with the wet season in the southwest region, the pace of resuming production continues, and the overall supply of industrial silicon remains high. On August 1st, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the issuance of the 2025 Special Energy Conservation Supervision Task List for the Polycrystalline Silicon Industry, which will implement special energy conservation supervision on 41 polycrystalline silicon enterprises. The direct impact of this energy-saving supervision on the polysilicon industry is to accelerate the clearance of outdated production capacity. Through this supervision, these substandard production capacities will be forcibly rectified or shut down, thereby optimizing the industry's supply structure. At the same time, it also means that the demand for industrial silicon is at risk of being compressed. In addition, at the Politburo meeting on July 30th, it was proposed to "govern disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations" and "promote capacity management in key industries", highlighting a greater emphasis on marketization, rule of law, and targeted measures. This has led to a certain correction and cooling of the anti involution market. After a sharp rise in July, industrial silicon had an unfavorable start to August, with both futures and spot prices falling. The closing price of the main contract 2509 for industrial silicon fell from 9285 on last Wednesday to 8360 yesterday, with a cumulative decline of nearly a thousand yuan in just a few working days, significantly "dragging down" the spot market; Yesterday, the price of 421 # metal silicon was 10000-10300 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 200 yuan. Overall, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, and the support for individual factories on the cost side has weakened. In terms of operating rate: Currently, most individual factories have resumed normal operation, and the overall operating rate has risen to around 75%. There are no new devices with clear maintenance plans in the short term, and it is expected that DMC supply will remain strong this week.