In August, the level of the lake is high, and there is a mix of emptiness and clarity. In the new month, the organic silicon market seems to be maintaining a calm situation, but in fact, most companies are closing down and accumulating a new wave of market momentum. Specifically, benefiting from the decent previous transactions and the expected positive impact, individual factories remain firm in their pricing sentiment. However, the recovery of the terminal market is unclear, and the actual shipment situation has not received good feedback, resulting in a slow pace of stocking for mid to downstream enterprises. It remains to be seen when regular stocking will begin this month. Overall, there is currently a strong atmosphere of high prices in the market, but at the same time, bearish sentiment also exists, causing a divergence of emotions between upstream and downstream. Despite the volatility, most companies still adopt the strategy of stocking up when needed and looking more and moving less. In the short term, upstream and downstream companies may focus on delivering pre-sale orders, and the organic silicon market will continue to operate steadily.
Cost aspect: On the supply side, the northern region has stable production, while the southern region has shown some improvement in production enthusiasm, resulting in an overall increase in output. On the demand side, polycrystalline silicon plants are operating steadily, and demand for industrial silicon remains stable; The recent increase in operating load and market supply of organic silicon monomer plants has led to an increase in demand for industrial silicon. Overall, downstream demand for industrial silicon is expected to slightly increase. However, the current "anti involution" sentiment has cooled down, and industrial silicon futures prices have rebounded. As of July 31, the main contract for industrial silicon, 2509, closed at 8760 yuan, a decrease of -6.26%, a decrease of 585 yuan. The spot side, 421 metal silicon, was reported at 10200-10400 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 100 yuan! Short term industrial silicon may return to fundamental trading, and the subsequent trend will be more cautious, with minor fluctuations being the main focus.
The market for precipitated white carbon black: On the raw material side, due to the impact of market price increases, some regions have shifted their transaction focus upwards, and the overall sulfuric acid market is still operating strongly; In terms of pure alkali, the demand side has shown relatively flat performance, but downstream enterprises have recently increased their purchasing willingness, with light alkali and heavy alkali quotations rising slightly by 100 to 1130-1520 yuan/ton. The cost side changes are limited, and the price remains stable. This week, the price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber is quoted at 6200-6800 yuan/ton. In terms of orders, the on-site price increase sentiment has cooled down, and it is difficult for the terminal to have substantial positive improvements. Downstream rubber mixing enterprises have lower purchasing desires and mostly maintain purchases based on order demand. Therefore, the current market for precipitated white carbon black is average, and in the short term, the precipitated white carbon black market will continue to consolidate weakly.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the demand in the A-share market continued to stabilize and improve this week. With the support of orders, the quotation in Shandong region was 1000 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The cost side support has strengthened, but the price of silicon dioxide continues to show differentiation due to cost and quality differences. This week, the high-end quotation for 200 meter gas-phase white carbon black is 22000-28000 yuan/ton, and the low-end quotation is 15000-19000 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the current demand for silicone rubber is still sluggish, with limited acceptance of upstream price increases and continued demand for gas silicon inquiries. However, gas-phase white carbon black enterprises have stable production and abundant supply to maintain core customers. Overall, the fundamental supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is expected that the gas silicon market will continue to operate steadily.
Overall, the current market is mixed with both positive and negative factors. Upstream and downstream companies are closing down and raising prices while lowering prices for trading. The divergence within the market continues to widen, and while rebound forces are accumulating, drag factors are quietly expanding, adding a lot of uncertainty to future trends. In the future, the organic silicon market still faces many challenges and opportunities. While maintaining stable operation, enterprises need to constantly innovate and enhance their competitiveness to cope with increasingly fierce market competition.