According to CCTV News, on the 23rd local time, US President Trump announced that he will impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. Trump also said that the United States is in serious negotiations with the European Union, and if they agree to open up to American companies, the United States will allow them to pay lower tariffs. For toy manufacturers, the outlook for the rest of this year is not optimistic. In the past two months, about 60% of toy manufacturers have laid off employees. The high tariffs imposed on goods from manufacturing centers in China and Southeast Asia have eroded profit margins and led some companies to completely cancel holiday season orders. Analysts and experts say that the industry continues to face a challenging environment characterized by accelerated layoffs, high tariffs, and cautious attitudes from retailers - all of which are threatening profitability and increasing risk. According to data from the Toy Association, the inflation rate for toys, games, and amusement equipment increased by 2.2% between April and May. Several manufacturers specializing in the design and production of silicone toys have stated that export orders fell by about 30% in the first half of the year, while domestic orders for trendy toys increased by over 35%.
Emergency shutdown of 1 million ton production capacity! Four individual enterprises in Shandong, Zhejiang, Xinjiang and other places announced yesterday that they will conduct centralized maintenance. According to the latest news, four major individual production enterprises, including those involved in the accident in Zibo, Shandong, have simultaneously launched comprehensive maintenance yesterday. The scale of production capacity involving parking has exceeded 1 million tons, and the maintenance cycle is yet to be determined. This move will significantly shrink the supply of the domestic silicone market.
Yesterday, Shandong's wind vane enterprises rose to the psychological window of 12000 yuan/ton, reporting 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Market analysis shows that the domestic silicone industry will continue to face pressure from supply-demand imbalance in 2025, with product prices showing a unilateral downward trend. Industry insiders have pointed out that excessive competition this year has led companies to fall into a "quantity price game" dilemma. In order to maintain cash flow, some individual enterprises have "compensated with quantity" and engaged in production behavior that exceeds demand. As a result, the lower the production price, the more losses they incur, seriously disrupting market order. After being busy for a while, everyone turned around and realized that all the knives thrown out had turned into boomerangs and stabbed themselves in the buttocks.
It is worth noting that the current ratio of DMC to silicon metal prices has fallen below the historical average, and the industry valuation has entered an oversold range. From the price trend, the DMC market price has deeply rebounded to around 12000 yuan/ton compared to the historical peak of 60000 yuan/ton in 2021, with a cumulative decline of 80%. This industry adjustment presents completely different characteristics from the 2012-2016 cycle: on the one hand, the duration of price decline has set a record, and on the other hand, the changes in supply and demand structure are more complex. Industry insiders believe that if production capacity regulation policies are introduced in the future, the market recovery path brought about by the supply side reform in 2016 may have reference value. At the policy level, the direction of "anti internal competition" is becoming increasingly clear, coupled with the continuous efforts of stable growth policies, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to be reshaped. The dual synergy of supply side capacity self-discipline and demand side policy stimulation may become a key variable in driving the market back to equilibrium.