Black June is coming to an end! Under the continuous breaking of the downward trend, the decline finally stopped at the end of the month to maintain stability. Looking back at the June market, on the one hand, industrial silicon continued to decline, and futures fell to the 7000 mark at one point! Cost reduction provides individual factories with room for profit; On the other hand, due to weak terminal demand, it was originally in the traditional off-season for room temperature glue, while high-temperature glue was dragged down by the tariff war, causing the two major demand bases to suffer setbacks. From bottom to top, the continuous poor order taking has led to slow digestion of inventory in the middle and lower reaches, and individual factories have been unable to reach a consensus to reduce production. The operating rate of over 70% has accelerated the risk of accumulated inventory. Therefore, in the situation of weak demand and high supply, individual factories have to return to the track of exchanging price for quantity. During this period, individual factories in Shandong continuously broke historical lows, falling 1100 from 11400 to 10300 at the end of the month. Other individual factories also followed suit and the fierce bidding made the mid to lower reaches who were confident in buying the bottom in May exclaim that they could not afford it. They thought it might fall again, but they never expected it to fall so much. As of June 30th, the mainstream quotation for DMC is 10300-10800 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1100 yuan or 9.4%; The average price in June was 11046.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.88% compared to the previous month;
At present, the upstream has accumulated pre-sale orders in the bidding process. It is understood that leading manufacturers are also secretly making efforts to grab orders. Pre sale orders for raw rubber and 107 rubber can be scheduled until the end of July; At the same time, the wind vane device in Shandong is still under maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased recently. On the other hand, industrial silicon futures have also rebounded significantly, returning to the 8000 mark, adding confidence in the price of spot 421 metallic silicon. According to market feedback, major factories in Xinjiang suddenly reduced production of nearly 30 furnaces last week, affecting daily output of about 1500 tons. The duration of the production reduction is still uncertain, so the favorable situation for industrial silicon in July also supports individual factories to raise prices to some extent. Overall, although the "9.9 yuan free shipping" policy in June did not materialize, the low prices that have repeatedly broken through major defenses still leave people heartbroken. Even with overcapacity and weak demand, selling organic silicon at such a low price is a tragedy for the industry. Today is both the last day of June and the closing day of the first half of the year. The industry generally believes that DMC is currently at a low price for the year. Although it still faces the challenge of reshuffling in the second half of the year, the bottom of the price can be expected, and there may still be a possibility of reversal in August and September.