Global Organosilicon Network, June 6th: Dollar Tree, a discount retail giant in the United States, announced its first quarter performance as of May 3, 2025. The total quarterly revenue was 4.64 billion US dollars, compared to 4.169 billion US dollars in the same period last year. The quarterly operating profit was $384 million, compared to $382 million in the same period last year. The quarterly net profit was 343 million US dollars, compared to 300 million US dollars in the same period last year. It is reported that the sales of silicon products priced between $3-5 in the first quarter increased by 15%.
The most prominent manifestation of current organic silicon involution is the expansion of production and pricing. As stated in the financial reports of multiple listed companies, the decline in unit price, coupled with the halving of sales this quarter, has led to an increase in the amortized cost of individual products, jointly dragging down the gross profit margin of the company in the first quarter. The reasons are not only the impact of external economic environment changes on the liabilities and assets of listed organic silicon companies, but also some top companies still adhere to the "scale mentality". At the same time as the regulatory correction of internal competition and the industry's call for "no price war", many individual enterprises actively use cost advantages and other means to strategically explore incremental businesses in downstream areas, and increase profits and revenue share. In this regard, a top listed individual giant clearly has a clear understanding and expressed confidence in the communication meeting, stating that "by the fourth quarter of this year, whether it is the company's new products, new brands, new product channels, or the company's entire cost reduction and efficiency improvement actions, they will all reach a suitable stage. Therefore, there is a chance for the company to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of this year, and we are very confident to do so. Look, individual giants are still three quarters away from profitability. Compared to making money, what the market is more concerned about now may be when the current price will rebound.
Significant drop, DMC continues to plummet This week, the organic silicon market continued its weak stability trend, with limited transaction orders and overall stable prices but significant pressure. Under the pattern of supply-demand imbalance, the market exhibits the following characteristics: 1 Price operation characteristics: DMC and D4 from Shandong Fengdao Single Factory have dropped by 400 yuan simultaneously, with a quoted price of 11000 yuan/ton! In fact, individual enterprises have not followed up yet, and the price range of mainstream products continues to narrow. The proportion of low-end quotation transactions has increased, showing a "single negotiation" feature. The spot price of DMC is 11000-12700 yuan/ton (10500-11000 yuan/ton for cracking materials), which is approaching the cost red line. The price difference between downstream products such as raw rubber (12800-13500 yuan/ton) and 107 rubber (12500-14500 yuan/ton) continues to compress, and the price difference between imported silicone oil (18500-19500 yuan/ton) and domestic silicone oil (14500-15800 yuan/ton) remains at around 3000 yuan/ton.
2. Focus of market contradictions: Supply side: The operating rate of individual factories remains low, social inventory digestion is slow, and some enterprises plan to expand their maintenance scale. Demand side: The demand for replenishment at the terminal is delayed, and the transmission of orders is not smooth. Downstream on-demand procurement strategies suppress transaction volume. On the cost side, the prices of 421 # metallic silicon (8500-10600 yuan/ton) and chloromethane (1900-1950 yuan/ton) are relatively stable, and the cost support effect is weakened.    
3. Industry dynamics: Accelerated differentiation of enterprise operation strategies: Top enterprises rely on the advantages of the industrial chain to maintain production, while small and medium-sized enterprises gradually shift towards flexible production. Transformation of trading mode: The proportion of spot trading has decreased, while long-term contract customers maintain their basic purchasing volume. The market mentality remains cautious, and traders actively reduce their inventory to avoid risks. In the future market analysis, there will still be a certain demand for replenishing inventory and purchasing downstream, so the price will still be determined based on the new round of signing, and the expected downward space is extremely limited.