Recently, there have been subtle changes in the domestic silicone market, and after months of unilateral decline, various links in the industry chain are engaging in a new round of price competition. Market monitoring shows that the mainstream DMC quotation range last week was 11400-12700 yuan/ton, with a leading enterprise in Shandong's exploratory increase of 100 yuan/ton being particularly noteworthy. However, there is still room for a slight decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton in actual transactions, reflecting the complex situation of the current market.
The supply-demand pattern is undergoing a deep adjustment. In terms of inventory, there is a regional differentiation feature. The inventory turnover days in East China have decreased from 28 days to 21 days, while some enterprises in Southwest China still face inventory pressure of more than 30 days. There is a contradictory trend on the cost side. Although the price of metal silicon 421 # has fallen to 11000 yuan/ton, the price of raw materials such as methanol has risen, pushing the production cost line to the range of 11600-11800 yuan/ton, causing most individual enterprises to be in a slight loss state. On the demand side, structural opportunities have emerged, with orders in high-end fields such as electronic potting glue and silicone for new energy increasing by 15% -20% month on month, becoming an important support for the market.
The strategies of market participants show significant differentiation:
Upstream enterprises have taken different response measures, with leading enterprises regulating supply by controlling operating rates (industry average of 65%), and some have initiated planned maintenance; However, small and medium-sized manufacturers still maintain cash flow by reducing prices and selling goods.
The inventory strategy of midstream distributors tends to be cautious, with current inventory generally controlled at 10-15 day usage, a decrease of 30% compared to the same period in previous years.
The end user procurement model has undergone a transformation, with major clients in fields such as electronics and automotive industry adopting a "small order high-frequency" strategy, compressing the single purchase volume to 5-7 days of usage.
Overseas markets have become a new variable. The export volume of organic silicon in May increased by 12% month on month, with a 25% increase in orders in the Vietnamese market. However, changes in the international trade environment and rising shipping costs have brought uncertainty to the sustainability of export recovery.
Industry experts say that the current market is at a critical turning point, and the launch of the traditional demand peak season in June will become an important observation window. In the short term, considering the pressure of quarterly performance evaluations, some companies may further reduce their promotions, and the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 11500 ± 300 yuan/ton. It is recommended that downstream enterprises adopt a cautious strategy and control safety stock within 50% of monthly usage.