Global trade has finally ushered in an important turning point. According to Xinhua News Agency, the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th. The joint statement reached during the press conference on May 12th. Although recent policy fluctuations have once again confirmed the deep dependence and fragility of the global supply chain, the latest developments in negotiations indicate that the cost-effectiveness and full industry chain advantages of Chinese manufacturing are still difficult to replace. The real choice of American consumers for "Made in China" highlights the powerful force of market rules. Affected by this news, a single factory's online report showed a closure last night, which is expected to inject strong confidence into the market. This week's observation of the raw rubber market: low-level consolidation continues, and the supply-demand game continues. As of May 12th, the domestic raw rubber market has maintained a weak and stable operation, with mainstream quotations ranging from 12700 to 13500 yuan/ton and actual transaction prices ranging from 12500 to 13300 yuan/ton. The proportion of low-priced sources has increased. Xinjiang's leading companies have stated that they have sufficient orders, benefiting from the rapid development of emerging fields such as new energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles), 5G communication, and ultra-high voltage. The demand for organic silicon industry is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2025. Especially in emerging fields, traditional petroleum based materials are gradually being replaced, such as room temperature adhesives and high-temperature adhesives, which are driven by the demand for new energy. Liquid adhesives and silicone resins are rapidly expanding due to new application scenarios (such as AI terminals and flexible electronics), and demand is growing rapidly.
Expected increase in supply reduction: The decline in raw material prices coupled with the pressure of losses in the industrial chain has led to a significant reduction in production of some individual units. Raw rubber production enterprises have adjusted their loads synchronously, and some production lines have experienced significant load reductions. It is reported that there may be large-scale equipment scheduled for maintenance within the month, and the market's expectation of supply side contraction has increased. However, the current inventory pressure still exists, and the short-term supply easing pattern is difficult to change. Obvious price pressure on the demand side: Rubber mixing enterprises continue to suffer losses, with strong resistance to high prices of raw rubber, and the focus of transactions continues to shift downwards. Although raw rubber factories are tentatively raising prices, weak end consumer demand has led to intensified negative feedback transmission - mixed rubber enterprises are facing problems such as extended payment cycles and high finished product inventories. They only maintain a basic demand for raw rubber procurement and generally hold a "bargain hunting" mentality, further suppressing price rebound space. Outlook for the future: Against the backdrop of no improvement in terminal demand, the phenomenon of profit squeeze in various links of the industrial chain may continue. It is expected that the short-term raw rubber market will maintain a stable to weak trend, and some manufacturers may continue to offer discounts to ease inventory pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor upstream maintenance dynamics and downstream stocking sentiment changes.
Shocked! With a surge of over 40000%, silicone factories are making a profit! Recently, a silicone toy called "Pinche Le" has broken through the children's market and become a new favorite among professionals aged 20-35. A staff member at a trendy toy store in Shenzhen revealed that the sales of Panda style products have doubled year-on-year, with multiple models experiencing a surge of over 40000% year-on-year. Several silicone factories in Guangdong have fully transformed into the production of stress relieving toys. Industry experts point out that behind this phenomenon is the explosive growth of the emotional consumption market. In trendy toy collection stores such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, various shapes of "pinch music" are prominently displayed. The salesperson said, "In the past, this type of toy was mainly purchased by parents, but now young white-collar workers often come to shop after work, and cute styles such as pandas and penguins are the most popular." A certain brand's "stress relieving groundhog" silicone toy was out of stock after two weeks on the market. The silicone product factories in Yangjiang and Jiangmen, Guangdong are undergoing a production line revolution. Since last year, we have stopped 60% of traditional silicone kitchenware orders and shifted all focus to the development of decompression toys. "The person in charge of a certain factory showcased the latest design of the" Pinch and Pinch Music "series: from simulated fruits to cat claws that can make sound, and even a joint blind box set. It is reported that the number of inquiries for such products has surged at exhibitions in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia, and some factories' foreign trade orders have been scheduled until the first quarter of next year.  
"When consumers repeatedly knead the ears of pandas, they are actually looking for exports for pressure." Analysts from China Toy Association pointed out that such products can simultaneously meet the needs of tactile decompression (flexible hand feel), visual healing (cute modeling) and social interaction (office topics), which is in line with the psychological demands of "instant satisfaction" of people in the workplace. Data shows that the size of the domestic emotional consumption market has exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 45%, and is expected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2025. Industry insiders predict that silicone stress relieving toys will develop towards the direction of "intelligence+". Silicone manufacturers have already developed stress relieving cubes with heart rate monitoring function, which can generate stress reports through an APP. Psychological experts remind that silicone toys relieve stress by treating symptoms rather than addressing the root cause. It is recommended to cooperate with scientific stress management. However, it cannot be denied that the "silicone pinching phenomenon" provides new ideas for the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries.