After half of November, the silicone market has gradually returned to the rational stage. Under the rebound and fluctuation, the market activity has increased recently, and the whole trading atmosphere has improved. Downstream manufacturers have prepared goods appropriately, and the manufacturer's order receiving situation has improved. Unexpectedly, when everyone is stable, a manufacturer in Shandong fluctuated after rising. Yesterday, DMC lowered 300 yuan / ton, and the price was callback to 30500 yuan / ton, DMC offer of other monomer plants is stable with little change, and the quotation remains about 32000 yuan / ton. At present, people in the industry are still worried about the stability of the market, and whether this small change of individual manufacturers will produce different changes in the next trend. Let's analyze it from the following aspects.


Yesterday, the chemical grade metal silicon at the raw material end continued to decline, with a partial decline of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of chemical grade metal silicon 421# Huangpu port is 40000-45000 yuan / ton. However, we learned last week that 421# the actual transaction price of chemical grade metal silicon had already fallen below 40000. At this time, the quotation of metal silicon fell sharply, which actually leveled the previously falsely high quotation with the transaction price. In the short term, the profit margin of DMC is still low, and the game with metal silicon enterprises will continue. In addition, we still need to pay attention to the recent continuous rebound of low-grade metal silicon, which is expected to slow down the decline of subsequent chemical grade metal silicon.


In the face of partial callback of monomer plants, although it is reduced slightly, it also reflects that the middle and downstream markets are still relatively cautious in preparing goods after appropriate replenishment. At present, the market bullish confidence has declined slightly. According to our understanding from a number of rubber mixing enterprises, due to the large amount of goods prepared last week and the high price raw rubber ordered in the early stage has not been consumed, a small amount of goods are prepared this week. The demand for room temperature glue continues to be flat, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is difficult to ignite. It is expected that the orders received by monomer plants this week are general, the demand side is not strong, and there are certain restrictions on the continued rebound of silicone.


On the whole, the price of metal silicon is still on the high side, the profit space of monomer factories is limited, the quotation of mainstream monomer factories is firm, the mentality is stable, and even shows a willingness to catch up slightly. However, at present, the operating rate of the single plant is still high, and the overall demand recovery speed of the downstream market is not directly proportional to the destocking speed of the single plant. All links of the industrial chain mainly consume their own inventory, so that the continuous power of goods preparation is slightly insufficient. In the short term, it is expected that the stability of DMC market offer this week is expected to be large, and local prices will be slightly adjusted. At the end of November or early December, if the downstream demand has not been significantly boosted, the possibility of finding the bottom again after exploring the rise cannot be ruled out.