It's rising again! This week, DMC continues to operate at a high level, with leading companies in the industry quoting prices approaching the key level of 15000 yuan/ton. According to the latest monitoring data, the current market spot price remains stable in the range of 14400-1490 yuan/ton, and production enterprises in the Zhejiang region maintain a firm pricing strategy. It is reported that this week, Xinghuo, Hesheng, Xingfa, Luxi, Dongyue, Xin'an Significant production capacity adjustments have occurred, with multiple individual units reducing their operating rates by 10-15 percentage points this week, effectively alleviating the pressure of accumulated inventory in the early stages. It is worth noting that the planned maintenance of a 400000 ton plant in Shandong has been initiated ahead of schedule, resulting in a decrease of about 10% in regional supply compared to the previous period.
[Demand side analysis] The downstream terminal market shows a clear wait-and-see trend: 1 The inventory cycle of raw materials for silicone rubber products enterprises has been extended to 25-30 days. The textile auxiliary industry has been affected by the decline in foreign trade orders, resulting in a reduction of nearly 30% in procurement volume. 3. Photovoltaic packaging material companies maintain essential procurement, but demand increased bargaining. [Market Game] Currently, both buyers and sellers are entering a deep game stage: on the supply side, supply is adjusted through device rotation, and some enterprises continue to implement quantity control and delivery strategies. Demand side: Cost transmission is significantly hindered, with about 65% of downstream enterprises suspending new purchases. Transaction performance: The number of new orders signed within the week decreased by 18% month on month, and the negotiation space for large orders has expanded to 200-300 yuan/ton. Considering: 1) The maintenance season for the head equipment will continue until mid April, and the factory inventory will drop to a low level. 2) The market trend of delayed recovery of terminal demand by 2-3 weeks is expected to maintain a short-term fluctuation in DMC prices at 14700 ± 200 yuan/ton container. It is recommended to pay attention to the market signals released at the pricing meeting of leading enterprises next week, as well as the progress of demand recovery in the field of building sealants.
Industry expert Mr. Li believes that the recent high prices of organic silicon have been driven by a wave of production cuts by top individual companies, which has significantly intensified market concerns and increased the risks of supply decline and price rise. This has continued to provide significant support for organic silicon prices. Can the upward trend of organic silicon continue? He believes that the increasing expectation of sustained production cuts in the short term, coupled with increased market uncertainty, supports the rise of organic silicon prices, which are expected to maintain their strength under inertia. However, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the profit taking needs of low-cost holders. Whether the price of organic silicon can continue to stabilize depends on whether the supply and demand pattern can improve. If terminal demand continues to rebound while supply remains relatively low, the price of organic silicon is expected to continue to rise. Meanwhile, the cost of raw materials is an important factor affecting downstream prices. If the prices of raw materials such as DMC, 107 glue, raw rubber, and silicone oil remain strong, it will provide support for downstream prices. In addition, policy regulation will also have a significant impact on the price of organic silicon. Policies and measures such as capacity regulation and strengthening environmental protection will help reduce supply, thereby supporting the price of organic silicon.