I never expected that the price of organic silicon would skyrocket in recent days! Yesterday's public survey data from our website showed that over 44% still have a positive outlook on the future performance. Hesheng's quotation has increased again, with DMC quoted at 14800 yuan/ton, silicone oil quoted at 16300 yuan/ton, 107 rubber quoted at 15100 yuan/ton (barrel price per ton), and raw rubber quoted at 15500 yuan/ton. Xinghuo, Luxi, Xingfa, Xin'an, Dongyue, Xingxing and other individual factories have announced price increases simultaneously. As of March 20th, the mainstream spot price of DMC is 14400-14800 yuan/ton, the mainstream spot price of raw rubber is 15500-15700 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 107 rubber is 14800-15100 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of domestic silicone oil is 15800-16500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of imported silicone oil is 18500-19500 yuan/ton. 421 # metal silicon is reported at 11500-12100 yuan/ton, and chloromethane is reported at 2100-2250 yuan/ton. The expectation of loose global supply of organosilicon in 2025 is still present, and trade policies in Europe and America may affect the global supply and demand pattern of various organosilicon commodities. The author visited representative downstream large and individual enterprises in Guangdong and Zhejiang and found that the market situation and corporate mentality have changed. At present, silicone rubber enterprises, downstream enterprises, and monomer factories have all reported an increase in sales volume in March. The following key signals are currently emerging in the industry dynamics:
1、 Supply side tightening drives market trend: The joint production reduction scale of individual enterprises has expanded to 40% of production capacity, reaching a new high for the year, and some devices have entered the maintenance cycle; Industry inventory has decreased by 12% compared to the beginning of the month, and DMC spot prices have remained at the key level of 14800 yuan/ton; The cost reversal effect is significant, and the current price is still 8% below the marginal cost line, indicating a strong demand from enterprises to raise prices.
2、 Structural recovery on the demand side: The weekly inquiry volume in the middle and lower reaches increased by 35% compared to the previous period, but the actual transaction conversion rate was only 58%; Segmented fields are showing differentiation: orders for photovoltaic packaging adhesives have increased by 18%, while demand for building sealants continues to decline by 23% year-on-year; The raw material replenishment cycle has been initiated, but the single purchase quantity has decreased by 30-50% compared to the usual.
3、 New features of market game: The price difference between futures and cash has narrowed to 200 yuan/ton, and the disappearance of arbitrage space has suppressed speculative behavior among traders; Terminal product enterprises have launched the "small order quick procurement" mode, compressing the average procurement cycle to 3 days; There are signs of a rebound in overseas orders, with inquiries in Southeast Asia increasing by 15% month on month.